MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/15/21

The Cardinals and Mets continue to battle for the NL wild card and have another key game on Wednesday that will help decide the playoff race. Which bets stands out tonight?

Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals

Over 8.5 (-118): 2 Stars out of 5

This game provides a mediocre starting pitching matchup between Mike Minor of Kansas City and Sean Manaea of Oakland. Minor has an xERA of 4.44, while Manaea has an xERA of 4.00. Neither bullpen has been particularly dominant this season, either, with the A’s having a 4.05 bullpen ERA for the season compared to 4.30 for the Royals.

Both offenses have been performing well since the trading deadline, with the A’s ranking 8th in runs scored and the Royals ranking 16th in runs scored since August 1st. Both teams should be able to provide offense against modest pitching.

Our model gives a 60.40% chance of the over hitting, making this a two-star bet for Wednesday.

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers

Astros Moneyline -210: 1 Star out of 5

This game features a major starting pitching mismatch with Kohei Arihara starting for Texas. Arihara has been putrid in nine starts this season, posting an xERA of 7.63, and he has only gone more than five innings twice this season.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros start Jose Urquidy, who has an xERA of 3.62 in 84.2 innings this season. Urquidy has established himself as a reliable starter, throwing 155.1 innings in his career and posting a career ERA of 3.48.

The Astros are also the second-best offensive team in baseball, scoring 5.29 runs per game, compared to 3.94 runs per game for Texas, which ranks them 28th. Houston also leads the league in wRC+ (117), while Texas is once again 28th (84).

Our model gives Houston a 67.86% chance to win outright, making this a one-star bet.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

Cardinals Moneyline +148: 1 Star out of 5

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to sweep the New York Mets, but they do face a difficult pitching matchup because they're against Tylor Megill, who has an xERA of 3.43 this season. Megill got off to a great start for the Mets this year, though he has slowed down significantly, allowing four runs or more in four of his last eight starts.

The Cardinals start Jon Lester, who is having a poor season and has an xERA of 5.19 to show for it. However, the Mets are not a good hitting team and rank 21st in MLB in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

Our model projects the Mets to win based on the pitching matchup, but we give the Cardinals a 42.24% chance to win with the plus odds. This makes St. Louis a one-star bet.