3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 9/14/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Kyle Tucker To Hit a Home Run (+330)
Are we going to see more home runs from the Houston Astros tonight?
I'm certainly hoping so; they are in a similar spot as they were last night, and that could mean plenty of balls going over the fence again. They are set to take on Jordan Lyles, who has allowed nine home runs in his last five starts and is absolutely a pitcher we want to target tonight. He comes in allowing a .220 ISO, a 5.63 xFIP, 1.84 HR/9, a 47.2% fly-ball rate, and a 38.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters this season. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on this slate, and it sets the Astros up perfectly tonight.
We can then turn to Kyle Tucker, who comes in with a 151 wRC+, a .252 ISO, a 44.6% fly-ball rate, and a 38.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. He didn't join in on the Astros' home run parade last night, so hopefully, it's his turn to join the fun tonight.
LaMonte Wade Jr. To Hit a Home Run (+550)
Jake Arrieta is giving up too many home runs this season.
This is, arguably, the worst season in Arrieta's career. He has allowed a total of 23 home runs in 94.2 innings, and his prior career-worst was 23 home runs in 168.1 innings. He has a 23.5% HR/FB ratio this year, where as his prior career-worst was 19.4%. It could be age, the crackdown on sticky substances, or any number of factors. Whatever it might be, it has led to him allowing a home run in 9 of his last 10 starts.
Against lefties, Arrieta is allowing 2.09 HR/9, a 5.46 xFIP, a 12.9% walk rate, a 38.5% hard-contact rate, and a 21.6% HR/FB ratio. He's bad this year -- there's simply no other way to put it.
LaMonte Wade Jr has big odds sitting at +550, and this matchup is perfect for him to cash in on that. He comes in with a 145 wRC+, a .283 ISO, a 45.7% fly-ball rate, a 40.0% hard-contact rate, and a 19.8% HR/FB ratio versus right-handed pitchers.
Arrieta is bad, and Wade has power. It is as simple as that.
Nathan Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-112)
Nathan Eovaldi has been cruising lately, and looking to his strikeout prop is a great option tonight.
In his last seven starts since the beginning of August, Eovaldi has posted a 26.1% strikeout rate or higher six times. Four of those gamers were at 31.8% or higher. That is a noticeable increase from his 25.2% strikeout rate on the season, and that points us towards the "over" on his 6.5 strikeout prop tonight. That has led him to post seven strikeouts or more five of those seven starts -- a level he should be able to reach tonight.
Eovaldi is going up against the Seattle Mariners, who enter in with a 25.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers -- third-worst in the league. This is the ideal matchup for Eovaldi to continue his strikeout trend and cash the over tonight.