MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Monday 9/13/21

Can the Giants take advantage of an inconsistent Yu Darvish at home? Where else are the best spots to bet Monday's MLB action?

Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.

Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners Moneyline: +108; 1 Star out of 5

The Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox are both still battling for wild card spots, and this series will have a major impact on who makes it to the postseason.

Seattle starts Logan Gilbert against Eduardo Rodriguez of Boston. Both starters have stronger xERAs than standard ERAs, as Gilbert has posted a 5.10 ERA with a 4.02 xERA. and Rodriguez has an even greater disparity with his 5.15 ERA and 3.67 xERA.

The starting pitching matchup is dead even, but Seattle gets the luxury of home field, which could be crucial. The Mariners are 41-31 at home, with Boston 37-35 away from Fenway Park. Therefore, Seattle will be looking to capitalize on their home turf.

Our model has this game as essentially a toss-up, giving Seattle a 48.26% chance to win outright, making this a 1-star bet given the plus odds on them to win.

Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers +1.5 (+102); 1 Star out of 5

The Texas Rangers are 30 games behind Houston in the AL West, but they could actually have the advantage at pitcher this evening.

Houston starts Jake Odorizzi who has an xERA of 4.78 this season, and he opposes Spencer Howard, who has an xERA of 3.91 in 37.2 innings pitched this season.

Texas may have the starting pitching advantage in this game, but they are also at home, where they have been much more competitive. The Rangers are 31-37 at home this season, and Houston has looked mortal on the road, posting just a 38-32 record despite being 83-59 overall. Texas also gets a run at +102, meaning that a narrow win for Houston still covers this spread.

Our model likes Texas to cover the run line, giving them a 51.71% chance to do so Monday.

San Diego Padres vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants -110; 1 Star out of 5

The San Diego Padres are sputtering a little bit.

The Friars are on a three-game losing streak and are in serious danger of missing the playoffs. They start Yu Darvish tonight vs San Francisco, and Darvish is overall having a great season in terms of his xERA, which is 3.09. However, Darvish has dealt with injuries and has been unable to match his peripherals recently. Darvish has given up four or more runs in five of his last seven starts. Darvish has also had a 5.45 ERA dating back to the "sticky stuff" discussion starting around June 1st, so his poor results have lasted for quite some time.

The Giants start Dominic Leone tonight. Leone has an xERA of 3.14, therefore if Darvish struggles again on the road here, it could be incredibly difficult for San Diego to get back into the game. With just an 83 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since August 1st, the Padres are also just not the same offense they were earlier in the season to overcome a blowup start.

Our model gives the Giants a 53% chance to win this game, making this a 1-star bet for Monday night.