MLB

4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Friday 9/10/21

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that these low-salary picks can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than DFS for other sports. But value plays being able to completely make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play is somewhat unique.

Ian Anderson, P, Braves

FanDuel Salary: $7,800

Ian Anderson came into this season with a lot of buzz after his performance in the 2020 playoffs. While Anderson hasn't quite lived up to it, he's still been pretty solid, and he's got a juicy matchup today at home against the Miami Marlins.

Anderson boasts a 22.2% strikeout rate and 11.4% swinging-strike rate for the year, and he's been much better at home. In Atlanta, he's allowed a .265 wOBA, compared to a .325 clip in his travels.

Miami has the second-highest strikeout rate this season (26.1%) along with the third-worst wOBA (.294). Their 3.45 implied total is a number we can feel good about targeting.

Anderson is our third-best point-per-dollar value play at pitcher and the top one among those with a salary of more than $7,000.

Jordan Luplow, OF, Rays

FanDuel Salary: $2,200

The Tampa Bay Rays are a quality stacking option today against Matt Boyd. Tampa's implied total is 4.91, and our model likes them even more, projecting the Rays to score 5.61 runs.

Boyd hasn't been good this year. He brings a 4.55 SIERA and 19.9% strikeout rate into this one. Right-handed bats have gotten to him for a 44.7% fly-ball rate. We project him to allow 1.05 dingers, the second-most on the slate.

Jordan Luplow is a low-salary righty who we rate as the slate's second-best point-per-dollar bat. He sports a huge 62.7% fly-ball rate versus lefties and has 4 homers in 92 plate appearances in the split. A year ago, he finished with a .337 wOBA and 51.6% fly-ball rate against southpaws.

Editor's note: Boyd has been scratched and will not pitch.

Corey Dickerson, OF, Blue Jays

FanDuel Salary: $2,600

As is usually the case when the Toronto Blue Jays are in a great spot versus a right-hander, Corey Dickerson makes a lot of sense as a value bat.

The Jays are definitely in a sublime spot. They're facing Chris Ellis at Camden Yards and carry a slate-leading 5.79 implied total. We're still waiting on a few totals to be posted, but as of now, the Jays' total is 0.67 higher than anyone else's. Ellis put up a 4.82 xFIP across 57 Triple-A innings this year and doesn't profile as someone who will have a lot of success in the bigs.

Dickerson typically hits sixth or seventh versus right-handers. He's recorded a 39.4% hard-hit rate in the second half and has hit all five of his homers off righties. He's an easy-to-jam-in piece for Jays stacks.

Aristides Aquino, OF, Reds

FanDuel Salary: $2,500

While the Cincinnati Reds' 4.37 implied total makes them a tough sell as a full-on stack, Aristides Aquino is a good one-off option.

Aquino is facing Jon Lester, who has a 5.38 SIERA and 13.9% strikeout rate in 2021. He's been abysmal since joining the St. Louis Cardinals, struggling to a 5.52 SIERA and 11.7% strikeout rate in 37 innings. Righties have pummeled him for a .385 wOBA and 1.73 homers per nine.

It's pretty easy to like Aqunio given Lester's ugly marks, and on top of that, the Reds' slugger has donged five times in 79 plate appearances against left-handers this season. He has a .348 wOBA and 57.4% fly-ball rate in the split.