MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 9/9/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 7.5 (-112): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Marcus Stroman and Jesus Luzardo are the scheduled starters for this clash between the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, and our model highlights the over as a solid bet. We have the Mets' offense doing the heavy lifting to get us to eight-plus runs.
Luzardo is a highly touted prospect who is struggling to a 4.81 SIERA in his first taste of The Show. The swing-and-miss stuff is there (12.9% swinging-strike rate), but he's got a 10.8% walk rate and is giving up juicy contact to right-handed hitters (38.2% hard-hit rate and 46.1% fly-ball rate). That should get him in trouble against guys like Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez and Pete Alonso, and this is a Mets offense that sits fifth in wOBA over the last 14 days (.348).
Stroman has been pretty good all year, and the Marlins' offense is a delightful matchup. Stroman's 4.03 SIERA is his best clip since 2017, and his 21.3% strikeout rate is a career-high mark.
We expect Stroman to do well as we peg Miami to plate just 3.82 runs. But with the line at only 7.5 runs and us projecting New York to score 4.93 runs, the over is the side to be on. We project the over to win out 59.9% of the time.
Washington Moneyline (+198): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Ynoa has a 3.63 SIERA for the season and has been excellent as a rookie. The reason to be bullish on Washington is that Ynoa hasn't been quite the same in his four starts since coming off the injured list -- especially in the past three outings. While matchups have been stout -- San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees and a Coors game -- Ynoa has surrendered nine total earned runs in 17 2/3 frames over his last three appearances.
And the Nats' offense continues to defy logic by producing well, checking in sixth in wOBA over the last 30 days (.335). Juan Soto has 56 walks, 28 strikeouts, a .335 average and .479 wOBA in the second half. He's good.
Fedde should have his hands full with the Atlanta offense, but he's quietly been pretty good of late. In August, Fedde recorded a 25.0% strikeout rate and 3.59 xFIP. He's also allowing a mere 30.7% hard-hit rate away from home -- if home/road splits are your jam.
In all, we project Atlanta to win by a score of 5.18-4.68. However, we give Washington win odds of 42.4%. Their +198 price on the moneyline implies odds of only 33.6%. Take the value and roll the dice on the Nats to win.