MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 9/8/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Over 8.5 Runs (-105): 1 Star out of 5
This is not the greatest pitching matchup between the Oakland Athletics and Chicago White Sox. Frankie Montas is having a solid campaign (xERA of 4.07), but he is going up against a struggling Dallas Keuchel (xERA 6.02). Both bullpens are around league average, as well, as the A’s have a 3.99 bullpen ERA and the White Sox have a 4.13 bullpen ERA, so both teams are providing lackluster pitching.
These strong offenses are more than capable of getting over the 8.5 mark given the modest pitching. The White Sox average 5.01 runs per game and the A’s average 4.51 runs per game. Our models project a slightly higher total of 8.91 runs in this game.
Washington +1.5 (-105): 2 Stars out of 5
The Washington Nationals have been in a tailspin since they traded a good chunk of their roster at the trading deadline, but they could have a good chance to win this game based on the pitching matchup.
The Atlanta Braves start Touki Toussaint, who has an xERA of 4.87 this season, so the Nationals should have a good chance to score. Our model projects them at 5.07 runs in this game, which should be enough to at least keep the game close.
The Nationals starting pitcher is Sean Nolin. Nolin has only pitched 17.1 innings this season, but he has a decent xERA of 4.28 in that time span, so he is off to a better start than his opposition. Our model gives the Nationals a 60.69% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making this a two-star bet.
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-156): 3 Stars out of 5
This is another game that does not feature a great pitching matchup, as Matt Harvey faces off with Mike Minor. Harvey has an xERA of 5.35 this season, and he is obviously not the same pitcher he was when he first came up with the New York Mets.
Minor has a slightly better xERA of 4.55, but he has really struggled the last two seasons. Since 2020, Minor has made 38 starts and has an ERA of 5.33 while allowing 1.6 home runs per 9 innings.
Both offenses are about even (4.16 runs per game for the Kansas City Royals; 4.13 runs per game for the Baltimore Orioles). But our model likes the Orioles to win outright and projects a 70.40% chance of them covering the runline of 1.5.