MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 9/7/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Buster Posey To Hit a Home Run (+380)

"If it ain't broke don't fix it."

That's the motto I'm going with when we have a game at Coors Field where Chi Chi Gonzalez is pitching for the Rockies. Gonzalez comes in allowing a .306 ISO, 5.29 xFIP, 2.28 HR/9, 37.6% fly-ball rate, 46.0% hard-contact rate, and 20.3% HR/FB rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's slate, and we get the added bonus of this game being at the best hitter's park in the league. There's no doubt the San Francisco Giants have a soft matchup in front of them tonight, and the home runs could come early and often.

This is where we can look to Buster Posey, who is posting numbers we haven't seen from him in legitimately five seasons. Posey comes in with 17 total home runs this season, 11 of which have come off of right-handed pitchers. He is also carrying a .186 ISO, 132 wRC+, and 20.4% HR/FB rate in this split. If Posey can get the ball in the air, he has a good chance of sending it over the fence tonight.

Christian Walker To Hit a Home Run (+390)

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Jordan Lyles is a bad pitcher.

That has been my stance on Lyles throughout the season, and I'm not changing it now, so let's take a look at why. Lyles comes in allowing a .245 ISO, 2.31 HR/9, 37.7% fly-ball rate, 40.4% hard-contact rate, and 21.7% HR/FB rate versus right-handed hitters this season. He's another pitcher who is giving up too many fly balls, and they are often leading to home runs for opposing hitters. This gives us a pitcher we can target each and every time he is on the mound.

Christian Walker may not seem like a usual candidate for a home run, but there's more than meets the eye this season. Overall on the year, Walker has a .139 ISO, 79 wRC+, 40.6% fly-ball rate, and 36.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers.

It's clear that he is lacking power, but that has been changing recently. In the month of August versus right-handed pitchers, Walker carried a .220 ISO, 123 wRC+, 56.3% fly-ball rate, and 40.6% hard-contact rate. Those are all noticeably higher than his season numbers and worth buying into given how soft his matchup is tonight.