MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 9/7/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

Over 7.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

This NL East matchup pits Carlos Carrasco against Edward Cabrera, and it's got a lowly total of 7.5 runs. Our model is really into the over -- mostly because we have the New York Mets blowtorching Cabrera.

Cabrera has just 10 1/3 MLB frames to his name, but things aren't going well as he's pitched to a 10.0% strikeout rate. While his minor-league track record is pretty solid, Cabrera is getting the Mets at the wrong time. New York is swinging it really well right now, putting up the fifth-best wOBA (.348) over the last 14 days. We project the Mets to plate 5.19 runs, so we don't need much from the Miami Marlins' offense to get us to the over.

Carrasco got a late start to the year due to injury. With a 3.80 SIERA, he hasn't been nearly as bad as his 6.59 ERA suggests, but he's also given up at least two runs in six straight starts. Carrasco has permitted five jacks over his last four outings. He's actually faced Miami twice across his seven starts in 2021, giving up five earned runs in 9 2/3 innings.

We have Miami pushing across 4.08 runs and forecast a total of 9.27 runs to be scored. Over 7.5 is priced at -106 right now, and we think the over hits 64.2% of the time. It's our top bet of the night.

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers

Over 8.0 (-118): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Aaron Nola and Eric Lauer square off in this one, and our algorithm once again sides with the over.

Nola has been off lately. He was tagged for six earned runs by the Washington Nationals last time out, and he's recorded a mere one quality start over his past six appearances. His season-long peripherals are still easy on the eyes, including a 29.4% strikeout rate and 3.33 SIERA. Facing a Milwaukee Brewers offense that has offered a lot of swing-and-miss this campaign, Nola could roll if he's locked in -- he just hasn't been locked in recently.

Lauer is a fairly meh pitcher who is running into a scorching-hot Philadelphia Phillies offense. Over the last two weeks. Philly is fourth in wOBA (.351) with 22 taters. Lauer is sporting a middling 4.36 SIERA and 22.8% strikeout rate.

We expect both offenses to have some success and view the game as a nail-biter -- projecting it to be 4.74-4.45 in favor of the Phillies. That's 9.19 total runs, and we give the over a 55.7% chance to win out.