MLB

4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Monday 8/30/21

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's 10-game main slate.

Luis Garcia, SP, Houston Astros

FanDuel Salary: $8,600

There isn't a shortage of high-salaried arms who project out well, including Corbin Burnes ($11,500), Robbie Ray ($10,900), Zack Wheeler ($10,600), so it's always hard to want to prioritize value pitchers when that's the case.

But you can make a good argument for Luis Garcia against the Seattle Mariners.

Firstly, the Mariners' active roster ranks 29th in strikeout rate (25.6%) this season, and that's paired with a weak wRC+ of 91 (ranking 22nd) and a sub-.300 wOBA (.298).

That matchup -- plus Garcia's 28.9% strikeout rate and 31.7% called-strike-plus-whiff rate -- makes for an elite combination. In total, he ranks second in expected strikeout rate among main-slate starters in my model.

Lastly, the Mariners boast the fourth-lowest implied run total of the evening (3.62), and Garcia's Houston Astros are -162 moneyline favorites.

Brad Miller, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies

FanDuel Salary: $2,300

Brad Miller has a good value recipe going for him tonight. The salary is super low, which is always part of it, but $2,300 is just $300 above the minimum salary on FanDuel.

Miller has the platoon split advantage against the right-handed Josiah Gray. Gray's 151 total batters faced in the MLB this season have recorded a worrisome (for Miller) 27.8% strikeout rate but a 58.9% fly-ball rate and a 33.7% hard-hit rate.

Miller, against right-handed pitching, has a .217 ISO this season (with a three-year average of a .252 ISO with a .357 wOBA and a 123 wRC+).

His homer prop is +370 at FanDuel Sportsbook, and numberFire's model has him hitting a home run 30% of the time tonight.

Tommy Pham, OF,

Tommy Pham, OF, San Diego Padres
Wil Myers, OF, San Diego Padres

FanDuel Salary: $2,800

San Diego Padres outfielder Tommy Pham also has a platoon advantage tonight against Tyler Gilbert, a lefty.

Gilbert, despite a promising-looking 2.38 ERA, has tallied a 5.14 SIERA and a 5.03 xFIP across 88 batters faced this season in the bigs, and that's tied to a 35.5% hard-hit rate a 41.0% fly-ball rate, and an 18.2% strikeout rate.

That sets up well for Pham. The Padres' righty has generated a .159 ISO this year against left-handed pitching, down from .267 last year, but Pham is consistently a plus-hitter in this split by wRC+.

Pham's homer prop is +480 tonight at FanDuel Sportsbook.

This all sets up well for Wil Myers, too, provided he's in the lineup. Myers has a +320 prop at FanDuel Sportsbook to go deep tonight, and his past two seasons against lefties have led to a .257 ISO and a 145 wRC+.