MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Monday 8/30/21

There's some quality pitching to be found on this mid-sized Monday slate, with multiple aces to choose from up top. Meanwhile, on the hitting side, the Toronto Blue Jays lead the slate with the highest implied total against an inexperienced Chris Ellis.

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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.

Pitchers

Zack Wheeler ($10,600): Wheeler's results have been a mixed bag lately, but his volume is unmatched this season, leading the league in innings pitched. That tends to result in plenty of FanDuel points when you're also sporting a 29.1% strikeout rate. He's hit 100 pitches in 16 of his 26 starts, and he's failed to reach at least six innings just four times all year. He draws an excellent matchup against the Nationals, which has an active roster submitting a mere 85 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching.

Robbie Ray ($10,900): The Orioles have a predominantly right-handed lineup and possess pretty good power, so this isn't necessarily a walk in the park for Ray. But the veteran lefty is coming off back-to-back games with double-digit strikeouts and continues to impress in a career-best campaign. He boasts a 3.18 SIERA, 31.6% strikeout rate, and 6.3% walk rate and is right there with Wheeler as a top pitching play tonight.

Luis Garcia ($8,600): While Garcia isn't a guy we can expect to log 100 pitches like Wheeler or Ray, he's still demonstrated the 50-point upside we look for in our pitchers. In fact, Garcia's underlying numbers don't trail those two by much, as he's got a rock-solid 3.58 SIERA and 28.9% strikeout rate this year. The matchup is right for a ceiling game against the Mariners, who own a 91 wRC+ and 25.4% strikeout rate versus righties.

Others to Consider: Corbin Burnes ($11,500), German Marquez ($9,100)

Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays: Baltimore's Chris Ellis has actually produced pretty good numbers over his seven big league innings this year, but a quick glance at his Triple-A numbers suggest things will probably go south for him sooner rather than later. Over his 57 minor league innings this season, he's put up a 4.87 xFIP, 22.7% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate, and 39.8% ground-ball rate. He was even worse in 2019, too, posting an ugly 6.26 xFIP in Triple-A.

Stack up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,400) and the other high-salaried bats in the top half of the lineup, but depending on who starts, we should also find plenty of lower-order value through guys like Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000), Corey Dickerson ($2,600), Randal Grichuk ($2,700), and Alejandro Kirk ($2,100). Despite the near-minimum salary, Kirk has quietly managed a .181 ISO and 12.5% strikeout rate across 120 plate appearances.

Kevin Smith ($2,000) shouldn't be completely ignored, either. He has some pop in his bat, as he posted a .289 ISO in Triple-A this season.

San Diego Padres: Tyler Gilbert is a fun story due to a surprise no-hitter in his first MLB start, but his peripheral numbers continue to point towards regression. While he may be showing a 2.38 ERA, his 5.14 SIERA and lucky .213 BABIP are bad signs, and an 18.2% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate don't favor him, either. He also wasn't exactly dominant in Triple-A this year, as shown by a 5.41 xFIP and 22.8% strikeout rate.

Against the lefty, Fernando Tatis Jr. ($4,500) and Manny Machado ($3,900) are obvious starting points, while Tommy Pham ($2,800) and Wil Myers ($2,800) provide value at their salaries. And while we don't have a large sample size for Gilbert against left-handed batters, he's actually only posted a 9.4% strikeout rate in the split, so we don't need to ignore San Diego's lefties in stacks.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Drew Smyly is coming off an eight-strikeout game against the Orioles, but he also gave up three dingers in that start, which is why we're featuring the Dodgers here. Smyly has often struggled with the long ball over his career, and this season has been no exception, coughing up 1.86 per nine innings.

As you would expect, right-handed batters have the advantage against the southpaw, as Smyly is only showing a 4.63 xFIP in the split. Enlisting the Dodgers' top righty sticks won't come cheap, though, with Trea Turner ($4,500), Mookie Betts ($3,900), Will Smith ($3,700), Justin Turner ($3,600), and Chris Taylor ($3,600) all showing higher salaries. A.J. Pollock ($3,100) is one of the lone values we may see in the order.

Max Muncy ($3,700) hasn't missed a beat versus left-handed pitching this year, so feel free to roll him out there, too.

Others to Consider: New York Yankees, Colorado Rockies, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros