3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 8/30/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Will Smith To Hit a Home Run (+320)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in a spot to hit multiple home runs tonight.
With a matchup against Drew Smyly, the Dodgers' hitters could be in for a big offensive night, and we want to capture that via a home run prop. Smyly comes in allowing 1.85 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, along with a 4.63 xFIP, 39.9% fly-ball rate, and 34.0% hard-contact rate. Smyly has allowed 23 home runs this season, 17 of which have come from right-handed hitters.
We turn to Will Smith, who owns a .284 ISO, 164 wRC+, 47.8% fly-ball rate, and 38.0% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Smith has home runs in three of his last four games, and while I don't like to follow hot streaks, Smith is locked in at the plate and has a great matchup on top of it.
German Marquez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+122)
With plus money on the over, German Marquez's strikeout prop is worth considering tonight.
The strikeout prop is sitting at 6.5 tonight, and the over is the spot to side with against the Texas Rangers. Marquez has a 25.0% strikeout rate on the season, but he has seen that increase as of late. In his seven starts since the All-Star break, Marquez has posted a 28.0% strikeout rate or higher in four of those starts. His strikeout production is peaking in the second half of the season, and he gets to take on a weak Rangers team.
The Rangers come in with a 24.1% strikeout on the year versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 12th worst in the league. Marquez should be able to get deeper into the game because he is on the road in an American League park, meaning the Colorado Rockies are using a DH tonight.
Luis Garcia Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+150)
Attacking the Seattle Mariners with the opposing pitcher's strikeout prop is nothing new.
The Mariners have a 25.6% strikeout rate this season versus right-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league. They have been a strikeout-heavy team all season and looking to the opposing pitcher's strikeout prop has been a consistent trend.
Tonight, we look to Luis Garcia, who comes in with a very strong 28.9% strikeout rate and has piled up seven strikeouts or more in six of his last eight starts. He has a strong level of consistency, and with the soft matchup against the Mariners, Garcia should be able to push that to eight tonight and cash in on the over.
