3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 8/26/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Franmil Reyes To Hit a Home Run (+270)
Franmil Reyes is an absolute powerhouse at the plate and is always a threat for a home run.
To say Reyes has power would be a bit of an understatement. He comes in with a big .310 ISO, 132 wRC+, 45.4% hard-contact rate, and 39.5% homer-to-fly-ball ratio versus right-handed pitchers. That 39.5% homer-to-fly-ball ratio is the third-highest in the league among hitters with at least 170 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. The power he has is undeniable.
He will be going up against Jordan Lyles, who is simply not a good pitcher. He comes in allowing a .242 ISO to righties this season along with 2.27 homers per nine (HR/9), a 38.3% fly-ball rate, 39.8% hard-contact rate, and a 21.0% homer-to-fly-ball rate. This is the ideal matchup for Reyes, and he is an awesome option for a home run prop tonight.
Rhys Hoskins To Hit a Home Run (+290)
Rhys Hoskins is hot right now, so let's turn to his home run prop.
Since returning from his injury, Hoskins has three home runs in three games. Generally, I don't like to look a hot/cold streaks since baseball is random enough to begin with. If a player has a good matchup, that's what matters -- whether or not they've hit 10 or zero home runs in their last 10 games. I like the matchup ahead of any recency bias.
This is where we find Hoskins, who has a great matchup against Zac Gallen. This season, Gallen is allowing 2.21 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, has a bad 10.6% walk rate, 47.4% fly-ball rate, and 44.9% hard-contact rate. He is a reverse-splits pitcher and is getting blasted by righties this season.
Hoskins has posted a .264 ISO, 120 wRC+, 51.3% fly-ball rate, and 33.3% hard-contact rate. Ideally, we'd like to see a bit more hard contact from Hoskins, but a fly-ball rate that high at the Philadelphia Phillies' home park is always a positive.
Jameson Taillon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-156)
With a tougher matchup on tap for Jameson Taillon, the under on his strikeout prop is the direction to look. It has a decent amount of juice, but it looks like the right call.
Taillon's strikeout rate this season is 23.5%, which is right at the league average, showing he isn't a big threat to pile up strikeouts. In his seven starts since the All-Star break, Taillon has posted a single-game strikeout rate of 21.7% or lower in five of those outings. His strikeout rate is falling over the second half.
Taillon is up against the Oakland Athletics, who sport a meager 21.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. The A's are very disciplined at the plate and don't waste opportunities. So we have a pitcher struggling to get punchouts against a team that doesn't strike out much. It all points to the under on 5.5 strikeouts.