MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/26/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies
Over 8.5 (-114): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Zac Gallen and Zach Eflin are squaring off tonight, and our model likes the over.
Gallen is having a pretty rough campaign by his standards, struggling to a 4.01 SIERA, a 10.0% walk rate and a 9.6% swinging-strike rate. He's giving up a lot of juicy contact, including a 42.5% hard-hit rate in the second half, which has led to him allowing 1.46 homers per nine for the season. Prior to a stellar outing at Coors last time, Gallen had permitted 21 earned runs over his past 26 2/3 frames. We expect the Philadelphia Phillies' offense to have a big night, pegging them for 5.41 runs.
Eflin has pretty nice numbers this year -- spinning a 3.79 SIERA -- but he is making his first start off the injured list, with his last MLB appearance coming back on July 16th. He might not throw many pitches tonight, so we could see plenty of a Philadelphia bullpen that is a middle-of-the-road group, ranking 16th in SIERA over the last 30 days.
Our projections have the Phillies topping the Arizona Diamondbacks by a score of 5.41-4.25. That's 9.66 total runs, and we give the over a 59.7% chance to hit.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Over 7.5 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
With the total at a lowly 7.5 runs for tonight's clash between Patrick Corbin and Elieser Hernandez, we like the over.
While Corbin has a friendly matchup, he took a big step back in 2020, and he's still heading in that direction this year, with his 18.6% strikeout rate and 4.57 SIERA both career-worst marks. He's giving up a .365 wOBA in the second half, and before a one-run performance versus the Milwaukee Brewers in his previous start, Corbin had surrendered at least four earned runs in six straight appearances. Big yikes.
Hernandez has flashed appealing upside in in his brief career, but we haven't seen much of him. Since the start of 2020, he's amassed just 43 innings, although he's been excellent in them, boasting a 3.33 SIERA and 29.8% strikeout rate.
There are two negatives with Hernandez today. One is tied to his injury history as the Miami Marlins are being careful with him, capping him at 68 pitches or fewer in three of his four starts (with a high of 82). Miami's bullpen -- which is 16th in SIERA over the past month -- should be busy tonight. The other issue is the fact that the Washington Nationals are swinging it well, posting the eighth-best wOBA (.333) across the last 30 days.
In all, we project Washington to win 4.65-4.50 as we have these two offenses combining for a total of 9.15 runs. Our model sees this game getting to the over 63.3% of the time.