MLB

3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Wednesday 8/25/21

Josh Donaldson and the Twins have high expectations tonight. Which other players can help save salary on FanDuel?

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's 10-game main slate.

Josiah Gray, SP, Washington Nationals

FanDuel Salary: $8,000

It may not be the best day to spend down when rostering a pitcher because the 10-game slate features aces such as Shohei Ohtani ($11,600), Zack Wheeler ($11,000), and Brandon Woodruff ($10,300), but if we want to, we can.

And that should primarily lead us to Josiah Gray in his matchup against the Miami Marlins. Miami's active roster ranks a lowly 27th in strikeout rate this season (25.4%), and they're also 27th in wRC+ (84).

Gray, meanwhile, has some strong numbers across 125 batters faced in the Majors this season. Gray has notched a 28.0% strikeout rate (2nd-best among main-slate starters -- since early June), and he's doing that with a called-strike-plus-whiff-rate of 31.5% (also 2nd-best on the slate).

Adjusting his strikeout rate with his opponent's, Gray actually sits second in expected strikeout rate on the board, so it's a pretty strong overall environment.

The Washington Nationals are just -110 on the moneyline to win, but the over/under in this game is just 8.0 runs. Gray should have a semblance of floor and upside here.

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Minnesota Twins

FanDuel Salary: $2,900

The Minnesota Twins and Josh Donaldson are set up nicely for offensive production tonight against the Boston Red Sox and Nick Pivetta.

Minnesota's implied run total is 4.72, ranking 3rd-best on the slate, and the game overall has an over/under of 10.5 in a hitter's park.

Pivetta has been rather poor since the start of June, allowing a 35.7% hard-hit rate (13th among main slate starters) and a 44.3% fly-ball rate (16th). The strikeout rate is solid at 25.2% (10th), but the other data suggests he's over-performing there, as his called-strike-plus-whiff rate sits at only 26.7% (15th).

Donaldson's got some solid home run odds (+340 at FanDuel Sportsbook, implying a 22.7% chance of going yard), and he has generated a .206 ISO against right-handed pitching this season across 266 plate appearances.

Michael Chavis, 1B/2B, Pittsburgh Pirates

FanDuel Salary: $2,000

A lead-off hitter who has multi-position eligibility and is listed at minimum salary sounds pretty nice when we have elite arms that we may want to roster.

That's what we get with Michael Chavis in a matchup -- sure, at home in a pitcher's park -- against lefty Tyler Gilbert.

Yeah, Gilbert has that no-hitter to his credit, but the underlying data is really poor: he ranks last among main slate starters in called-strike-plus-whiff-rate (21.0%) and is 18th in hard-hit rate allowed (40.4%). The 2.04 ERA is misleading, as he has a 4.80 xFIP and a 4.97 SIERA.

That gives Chavis a platoon advantage and a weak pitcher to start off against. Across 203 career plate appearances against left-handed pitching, Chavis has recorded a .461 slugging percentage and a .244 ISO.