MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/23/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Moneyline (-106): 1 Star out of 5
The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago White Sox are two of the best offenses in baseball, with the Blue Jays averaging 5.12 runs per game compared to 4.98 runs per game for the White Sox.
The Blue Jays' bats should have a slight advantage here, but Chicago may have an advantage in the pitching matchup. Lance Lynn is posting an xERA of 2.63 compared to 3.47 for Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah. However, Lynn and Manoah have nearly identical marks in SIERA, strikeout rate, and walk rate, so it's close.
The Jays also get the luxury of home field advantage, and they are 32-26 at home this season, compared to a 30-30 away record for Chicago.
Our model gives Toronto a 51.66% chance to win outright, making this a one-star bet.
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-136): 1 Star out of 5
Homefield advantage should be huge for the Chicago Cubs in this game, as the Colorado Rockies continue to be a disaster away from Coors Field. The Rockies are 43-22 at home and only 14-45 away from home, so they are two completely different teams. The Rockies' offense owns a 65 wRC+ in road contests, which is easily the worst mark in the league.
The starting pitching matchup is about even. Colorado’s Antonio Senzatela is producing an xERA of 4.64 and Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks has an xERA 4.80.
But betting against the Rockies away from Coors at almost even odds is a great opportunity, and our model likes it as a one-star bet.
Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland A’s
Oakland A’s -1.5 (+172): 1 Star out of 5
The Oakland Athletics are set up to win this game, as they are the better offense, have a reasonable pitching matchup, and have home-field advantage.
The A’s are performing much better than Seattle Mariners offensively this season, scoring 4.52 (14th) runs per game compared to only 4.17 runs per game for the Mariners (21st). Oakland should be able to take advantage of Mariners starter Marco Gonzales, who has an xERA of 5.74 this season.
The A’s also have the advantage at home, where they are 35-27. Seattle is just 30-33 in away games.
Our model gives Oakland a 58.17% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making this a one-star bet.