3 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Tuesday 8/17/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's 14-game main slate.
Logan Webb, SP, San Francisco Giants
FanDuel Salary: $7,600
The top of tonight's pitching pool features arms such as Corbin Burnes ($11,500), Alek Manoah ($9,900), and Adam Wainwright ($9,600), but if you're looking for a rock-solid under-the-radar value play, look no further than Logan Webb.
Though he might not be a household name yet, Webb has been nothing short of excellent in 2021. Through 85 innings, the right-hander sports a 2.96 ERA, 3.00 xFIP, and 26.0% strikeout rate. In fact, among hurlers with at least 80 innings in the bag this season, Webb's 3.00 xFIP ranks ninth in all of baseball, per FanGraphs.
The 24-year-old's solid numbers have also resulted in viable fantasy production. Over his last 10 starts, Webb has eclipsed 30 FanDuel points 7 times, including outputs of 39, 40, 46, 52, and 55. That'll play.
Tonight, Webb and the San Francisco Giants will have the pleasure of going up against the struggling New York Mets. Since the start of August, New York's 78 wRC+ ranks fifth-worst in all of baseball, and the team is also bottom-five in all of batting average, OPS, ISO, and wOBA during that stretch. Additionally, their 23.0% strikeout rate this month is good for 12th-worst.
Mitch Garver, C, Minnesota Twins
FanDuel Salary: $2,700
Cleveland Indians rookie pitcher Eli Morgan has only 48 1/3 big league innings to his name, but one major trend has emerged -- he struggles mightily with same-sided matchups.
The 130 right-handers to square off against Morgan in 2021 have amassed a .297 average, .934 OPS, .391 wOBA, and 2.51 dongs per nine frames. Sheeesh.
That plays right into the hands of Minnesota Twins catcher Mitch Garver, who, quite simply, has dominated righties this season. In 114 trips to the plate against like-sided pitchers, Garver has racked up a .988 OPS, .313 ISO, .417 wOBA, and 168 wRC+.
Aledmys Diaz, 2B, Houston Astros
FanDuel Salary: $2,700
Kansas City Royals first-year southpaw Daniel Lynch has accrued 31 2/3 innings through seven starts in the majors, and the results haven't been pretty.
To date, Lynch possesses a 5.97 ERA, which is backed up by a 6.37 xERA and 5.00 SIERA. Not great. Righties have done almost all of the damage against him, accumulating a .308 average, .865 OPS, .371 wOBA, and 1.27 homers per nine thus far.
Lynch will have the unfortunate task of going up against one of the best offenses in baseball in the Houston Astros. And while there are a number of bats we can target in a Houston stack, Aledmys Diaz sticks out like a sore thumb as far as value is concerned.
Diaz has been on an absolute tear since returning from injury in late July. During that 17-game stretch (75 plate appearances), the 31-year-old has hit for a .347 average to go with a .957 OPS, 9 extra-base hits (4 homers), 16 RBI, and 10 runs scored.
The Astros' utilityman has also smashed lefties in a limited sample this campaign. Through 63 plate appearances against them, he's hitting .322, and that's along with a .941 OPS, .254 ISO, .399 wOBA, and 161 wRC+. Sign me up.
