MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/12/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Under 11.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
There were quite a few runs scored when the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox tangled yesterday -- 28 to be exact. Our model projects this afternoon's game to be much different.
The pitching matchup is Drew Rasmussen and Tanner Houck.
Houck has been really sharp in his brief MLB career (42 2/3 innings), spinning a 3.27 SIERA and 33.9% strikeout rate. He's put up a 2.79 SIERA and 34.3% strikeout rate in 25 2/3 frames this year. Facing a Rays offense that owns the second-highest strikeout rate (26.1%), Houck is in a spot to succeed.
Rasmussen is starting for Tampa Bay, but it'll be a bullpen game. That suits the Rays well as they carry the league's lowest bullpen SIERA (3.51). With a 3.57 SIERA and 29.2% strikeout rate, Rasmussen has the skills to get Tampa Bay off to a good start.
All in all, our model projects a total of 9.5 runs to be scored in a 4.86-4.64 win for the Red Sox. We think the under wins out 60.0% of the time and rate it as a three-star bet.
San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 9.0 (-115): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
With Yu Darvish going for the San Diego Padres, the over might not seem super appealing in this one, but our algorithm loves it.
A lot of that has to do with Taylor Widener getting the nod for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Widener has pitched to a respectable 4.52 SIERA this year, but he's permitting a 44.4% hard-hit rate. He should have a tough time against the Padres, and that's exactly what our numbers show as we have San Diego scoring a whopping 6.63 runs.
That means we don't need much at all from Arizona's offense to get us to the over. While Darvish's season-long numbers are superb, including a 3.32 SIERA and 30.0% strikeout rate, the righty has given up multiple runs in six straight starts. In that span, he's allowed at least four runs in four games and surrendered 10 total dingers. So even though the D-Backs' offense is poor, they might be able to pop a couple jacks.
We have Arizona plating 4.06 runs. That's 10.69 total runs for the game, and we project the over to hit 57.9% of the time.
