3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/10/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Nick Castellanos To Hit a Home Run (+290)
It's time to get back on track with some home run calls and that starts with Nick Castellanos tonight.
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road to take on the Atlanta Braves, who will have Drew Smyly on the mound, putting the Reds in a good spot. This season, Smyly is allowing 1.66 HR/9 with a 41.5% fly-ball rate and 34.8% hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters. This has led to Smyly allowing 13 of his 19 home runs to right-handed hitters this season. We'd like to see the hard-contact rate a bit higher but Castellanos brings plenty of his own power to make up for that.
Castellanos comes in with a 47.1% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers, along with a 22.7% HR/FB rate and 31.4% fly-ball rate. The Reds have a 4.71 implied run total tonight, and we should see several of those runs coming via home runs off of Smyly.
Matt Olson To Hit a Home Run (+195)
Is Matt Olson a lock for a home run tonight?
The odds on Matt Olson to hit a home run (+195) are far shorter than I'd normally like to see for a home run prop, but this is what we have to work with. Ultimately, it really just means Olson is in a great spot to actually hit a home run, so let's look at why that is the case.
He is up against Triston McKenzie, who is allowing 1.11 HR/9 with a 5.29 xFIP, 46.3% fly-ball rate, and low 10.5% HR/FB rate versus left-handed hitters. This is where I'll note that McKenzie is allowing a significant number of fly balls, yet so few of them are going for home runs.
The league average HR/FB rate versus left-handed hitters is 13.2% this season. Considering McKenzie continues to allow this many fly balls, it's safe to say he is due for a bit of regression versus left-handed hitters.
This is where we turn to Olson, who has a .242 ISO, 42.7% fly-ball rate, and 40.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Eduardo Rodriguez has endured a rough middle part of the season but has turned things around quickly.
The end of May and most of June was a tough pitching month for Rodriguez. He was allowing home runs, not getting deep into games, walking too many hitters -- you name it, it wasn't going well. The only thing that was stable for Rodriguez in this time was his strikeout rate. He has maintained a 28.9% strikeout rate this season and now has a chance to cash in on the over 6.5 strikeout prop tonight.
Now that Rodriguez has turned things around, he can get deeper into the games and let that 28.9% strikeout rate shine. That should be on full display tonight versus the Tampa Bay Rays, who have a 25.3% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the third-worst in the league. This matchup puts Rodriguez in a great spot to rack up the strikeouts early and often.
