MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 8/5/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 9.0 (-106): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants -1.5 (-108): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Giants Moneyline (-176): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
There are two afternoon games that our model sees value in. The first is a San Francisco Giants-Arizona Diamondbacks matchup in the desert.
The Giants are sending Alex Wood to the bump, while the Snakes counter with Merrill Kelly. Advantage San Fran.
Wood also gets a nice draw versus an Arizona offense that is 25th in wOBA (.300), and he has been really good this season. He's got a 3.72 SIERA and 25.2% strikeout rate, and he fanned seven in six innings of two-run ball in his lone meeting this year with Arizona. Wood's SIERA is his best mark since 2017, while the strikeout rate is his highest since 2016.
As for Kelly, his 20.5% strikeout rate and 4.20 SIERA more or less fall in line with his career averages. He still has a tough time keeping the ball in the yard, permitting 1.11 dingers per nine, and he's facing a San Fran offense that sits fourth in wOBA (.330). This is a really tough spot for him, and our algorithm projects the Giants to have a big day.
We forecast a 6.18-4.25 win for San Francisco. The best bet in this one, per our numbers, is the over, which we expect to hit 55.6% of the time. But we also rate the Giants on the moneyline and runline as two-star bets.
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Over 8.5 (-112): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Nationals +1.5 (-130): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
Nationals Moneyline (+134): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
With the Washington Nationals doing what they did at the deadline and in a tough spot this afternoon against Aaron Nola, it's not easy to back them today. Our model, however, leans that direction.
While Nola is a stud and brings a 3.33 SIERA into this clash, we can poke some holes in his profile. He's surrendering 1.34 homers per nine, a career-worst clip, and he's been much worse away from home. On the road, he's allowing a .334 wOBA with a 3.99 xFIP. At home, hitters have a meager .269 wOBA against him while Nola owns a 2.84 xFIP. He's on the road today.
The Nats are turning to Joe Ross, who is having a career-best campaign. In 96 2/3 frames, Ross boasts a 4.05 SIERA and 24.3% strikeout rate. His career-high strikeout rate is 22.0%. Ross is coming off a July in which he posted excellent numbers, including a 28.2% strikeout rate and 4.2% walk rate.
All in all, our model projects the Nationals to win 51.4% of the time. We have Washington -- a 1.5-run 'dog -- covering 63.2% of the time, and we rate them on the runline and moneyline as two-star bets. We also like the over. Our algorithm projects a total of 10.22 runs to be scored, and we give the over a 64.4% chance to hit.