MLB Betting Guide: Wednesday 8/4/2021
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-114): 1 Star out of 5
The San Francisco Giants have a favorable pitching matchup in this game with Kevin Gausman facing Zac Gallen. Gausman has a 3.21 xERA compared to a 3.83 xERA for Gallen, and Gausman also has a bigger edge in traditional ERA with 2.35 compared to 4.61.
The Giants are also a much better offensive team than the Arizona Diamondbacks, as they are averaging 4.88 runs per game while Arizona is only managing 4.16.
Our model likes the Giants' chances to cover in this one, giving them a 55.39% chance to cover the runline of 1.5.
Houston Astros +1.5 (-102): 3 Stars out of 5
The Dodgers do have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup, with Max Scherzer going up against Jake Odorizzi. Scherzer has a strong xERA of 3.26, but he does have a tendency to give up the long ball (1.5 HR/9 this season), which makes him vulnerable against a slugging team like Houston. Houston is sixth in home runs this season, so they could be a tough matchup for Scherzer.
Our model gives Houston a 60.69% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, and that makes this a three-star betting opportunity.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+134): 1 Star out of 5
This game features a lackluster starting pitching matchup between J.A. Happ of the St. Louis Cardinals and Drew Smyly of the Atlanta Braves. Smyly has a 4.81 xERA this season, while Happ has a 5.79 xERA.
The Braves only have a slight edge in the pitching matchup, but they have a huge edge offensively. The Braves are averaging 4.75 runs per game compared to only 3.99 runs per game for the Cardinals.
Our model gives the Braves a 45.58% chance to win by multiple runs, which is enough to make this a one-star bet at +134 odds.