3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 8/4/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run (+250)
The Boston Red Sox have a great matchup tonight to see plenty of home runs flying off their bats.
Casey Mize will be on the mound for the Detroit Tigers and he is a pitcher you should be looking to attack with left-handed hitters. This season, Mize is allowing 2.16 HR/9 to left-handed hitters, as well as a 34.7% fly-ball rate, a 47.0% hard-contact rate, and a 23.5% HR/FB ratio. Mize has struggled all season with lefty hitters and there's no reason to stop looking to attack him now.
Rafael Devers is the player to target for a home run tonight with his .353 ISO, a 43.5% fly-ball rate, and a massive 50.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Devers has all the power potential you could possibly want and then some, so look to his home run prop.
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Kevin Gausman has been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league and his strikeout prop is worth considering tonight.
With a 30.0% strikeout rate, Gausman has proven to be among the league's elite pitchers and his upside is clear anytime he is on the slate. Gausman comes in with eight strikeouts or more in 5 of his last 10 starts, showing he has a ceiling he can often reach for. Tonight, Gausman will be up against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who come in a 24.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 12th-worst in the league.
Considering Gausman has pushed his strikeout rate past 32% in three of his last five starts, we are in the midst of seeing him hit a surge while his strikeout prop total hasn't adjusted for the change.
Marcus Semien To Hit a Home Run (+330)
Whether it's betting or DFS tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays should be a popular option.
It's not a secret to anyone but the Blue Jays have an insane amount of power in their lineup. When the home runs get going for this lineup, it seems as if they will never stop and that is what we could be seeing from them tonight. They are going up against Jean Carlos Mejia, who only has 45.0 innings pitched at the MLB level but has struggled with home runs in that time. Yes, it's a smaller sample size but a 23.8% HR/FB ratio is bad and when he is facing a lineup with the power the Blue Jays have, I doubt it's going to get any better.
This is why we'll turn to Marcus Semien, who comes in with a .252 ISO, a 45.8% fly-ball rate, and his 37.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Eighteen of Semien's 25 home runs have come off of right-handed pitchers this season, so yeah, he can get it done in this matchup.
