MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 8/3/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 9.0 (-102): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model projects some offensive fireworks in this game -- mostly on the side of the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox will see Kansas City Royals left-hander Kris Bubic, who has pitched to a 4.96 SIERA and 18.7% strikeout rate this season. Bubic is also walking 11.2% of hitters. He will likely be in a lot of trouble against a White Sox lineup that has the ninth-best wOBA against lefties (.329). Our model expects just that, forecasting the Pale Hose to plate a whopping 6.29 runs.
With the total listed at 9.0, we shouldn't need too much from the Royals to get to the over.
KC is up against Dylan Cease. Cease is breaking out this year, posting a 3.77 SIERA and 29.3% strikeout rate -- both of which are career-best marks by a good distance. But Cease also walks too many guys (9.3% walk rate) and gives up too many fly balls (41.7% fly-ball rate). He's allowed multiple runs in eight of his last nine starts, including a pair of six-run outings, and this will be the fourth time the Royals have faced him this season.
All in all, our numbers have the White Sox winning by a score of 6.29-4.17. That's a total of 10.46 runs -- well over the 9.0 line. We have the over hitting 56.0% of the time.
Cubs +1.5 (-146): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Cubs Moneyline (+130): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
You may have heard -- the Chicago Cubs dealt away a lot of talent at the deadline. They're obviously a worse team now than they were a week ago, and they're underdogs tonight at Coors. But our projections see a lot of value on the Cubbies as we project them to beat the Colorado Rockies.
We should get plenty of runs as Zach Davies and Kyle Freeland are the probable starters. They own strikeout rates of 16.3% and 17.3%, respectively, with Freeland permitting 1.61 dingers per nine. Davies carries a 5.53 SIERA while Freeland's SIERA is at 4.78, but Freeland has been much worse in Denver, giving up a .374 wOBA in the split.
The Cubs' lineup still has some dudes who do work against lefties -- led by Willson Contreras, who has a .379 wOBA in the split. Patrick Wisdom holds a .368 wOBA and 48.3% hard-hit rate against lefties.
Our model projects the Cubs to win 6.47-5.63. Considering the Cubbies are 1.5-run underdogs and are sitting at +130 on the moneyline, there's some coin to be made. We have the Cubs covering at a rate of 73.5% and winning 56.7% of the time.