MLB Betting Guide: Monday 8/2/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on Soccer odd? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing
San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-122): 2 Stars out of 5
This game should be a mismatch as the 66-39 San Francisco Giants face the 33-73 Arizona Diamondbacks. The Giants have the best record in MLB and the Diamondbacks have the worst record in the majors, so it is not surprising that the Giants average 4.86 runs per game compared to only 4.13 for the Diamondbacks.
The pitching matchup also favors San Francisco as Anthony DeSclafani has an xERA of 3.74 compared to an xERA of 5.90 for Taylor Widener.
Our model likes the Giants to win this game and we give them a 59.99% chance to cover the runline of 1.5, making this a 2-star betting opportunity.
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-120): 1 Star out of 5
The Tampa Bay Rays lead the Seattle Mariners by 8 games in the standings but the Mariners should have a good chance in this game due to the starting pitching matchup.
The Rays are starting Michael Wacha who has an xERA of 5.67 and he faces Chris Flexen who is having a much stronger season with an xERA of 4.07. Tampa Bay is scoring at a much better rate than the Mariners (5.01 runs per game compared to 4.23) but the runline cushion of 1.5 helps negate that advantage in terms of the betting line.
Our model gives the Mariners a 57.04% chance to cover, making this a 1-star bet.
New York Mets at Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins +1.5 (-144): 1 Star out of 5
This game features a quality starting pitching matchup, as the Miami Marlins' Sandy Alcantara has a 3.23 xERA in 132.2 innings this season, while New York Mets starter Tylor Megill has a 2.32 xERA through his first 35.1 MLB innings.
One major note that should be considered is that Alcantara has a much larger track record than Megill along with a career ERA of 3.52, so his stats from this season are no fluke. With only 35 MLB innings to his name, it is difficult to make a full judgment on Tylor Megill, although, admittadly, his career is off to a fast start.
The Marlins have been the better team offensively this season, averaging 3.90 runs per game compared to only 3.78 runs per game for the Mets. Our model likes the Marlins in this one, giving them a 62.57% chance to cover the runline.