3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/30/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mitch Haniger To Hit a Home Run (+340)
With a favorable pitching matchup on tap, Mitch Haniger is in a great spot for a home run.
Haniger and the Seattle Mariners are on the road to take on Kolby Allard, who is a pitcher we absolutely want to target. Allard comes in allowing 1.47 homers per nine (HR/9) to right-handed hitters this season with a low 19.9% strikeout rate, 40.1% fly-ball rate, and 34.7% hard-contact rate. Allard has allowed 11 home runs in his last 10 starts, so he clearly struggles with the long ball this year.
We can turn to Haniger, who comes in with a very strong .292 ISO, 141 wRC+, 38.8% fly-ball rate, 37.6% hard-contact rate, and a huge 30.3% homer-per-fly-ball ratio (HR/FB) versus left-handed pitchers this season. When Haniger gets the ball in the air versus lefties, it has a good chance of leaving the park.
Carlos Santana To Hit a Home Run (+370)
Stripling allows too many dingers. That isn't up for debate -- unless you consider giving up 1.72 HR/9 to lefties and 2.22 HR/9 to righties good. Stripling has gotten worse as the season has gone on and has allowed 6 home runs in 14.2 innings pitched in July alone. Yes, that's a small sample size, but it also coincides with the warmer weather and the crackdown on sticky substances. Things aren't going well for Stripling.
Carlos Santana is a great option for a home run prop with his .194 ISO, 46.5% fly-ball rate, and 37.6% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. You could also roll with Salvador Perez (+220) to hit a home run since all of the Royals' hitters are in a nice spot.
Touki Toussaint Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+106)
Can Touki Toussaint keep up this high strikeout rate?
Toussaint has pitched only 13.2 innings this season, so take everything with a grain of salt. But he comes in with a 29.4% strikeout rate, which is higher than what he posted in 2020 (25.0%) and in 2019 (22.7%). Both of those were larger sample sizes but still not that big in the grand scheme of things.
While Toussaint may end up falling somewhere in the middle of all these numbers, there is an encouraging sign he will be on the upper end of it. During his time in Triple-A this year, he held a 35.2% strikeout rate. Essentially, we have a pitcher who is showing a higher strikeout rate than ever before, and we don't know how long he will be able to sustain it. Is this just a flash in the pan or a new level he can reach?
He can keep it rolling today.
Toussaint will be up against the Milwaukee Brewers, who have a 25.4% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, the sixth-highest in the league. The matchup should allow Toussaint to continue the higher level of strikeouts, and we're getting plus money on the over.