3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/28/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Gary Sanchez To Hit a Home Run (+250)
The right-handed hitters from the New York Yankees are in a great spot tonight.
Even though the Yankees aren't fully healthy, their top few hitters can always make a big impact. Tonight, we could see that on display since they are going up against Michael Wacha, who is showing massive, massive reverse splits this season, allowing 2.68 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, as well as a 38.3% fly-ball rate, a 26.1% HR/FB ratio, and a 50.0% hard-contact rate. By reverse splits I mean he is worse against right-handed hitters even as a right-handed pitcher.
Gary Sanchez started the year slow but has turned things around and still brings plenty of power to the plate. He comes in with a solid .220 ISO, a 42.6% fly-ball rate, and a 20.4% HR/FB ratio. Sanchez's batted ball metrics line up nicely versus Wacha, who is struggling versus righty power hitter in 2021.
Jose Abreu To Hit a Home Run (+290)
I absolutely love the matchup for the Chicago White Sox tonight.
I'm feeling multiple home runs from the White Sox tonight, and in reality, if you want to take a shot on a player with slightly longer odds than Jose Abreu (+290), I'm totally on board with it. This is due to the fact they are going up against Kris Bubic, who is allowing 1.78 HR/9 to righties, 2.08 HR/9 to lefties, an 18.6% HR/FB ratio versus righties, and a 27.3% HR/FB rate versus lefties. You get the idea. Bubic has allowed 14 home runs in 17 games this season and we're looking at a clear option to target tonight.
Abreu is a player I have an eye on with his .326 ISO, 138 wRC+, 40.6% fly-ball rate, 34.8% hard-contact rate, and 28.6% HR/FB ratio versus left-handed pitchers this season. It's also very hot in Kansas City tonight, giving a nice boost to the hitters.
Lucas Giolito Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+124)
Lucas Giolito is one of the best pitchers on tonight's slate and his strikeout prop is worth considering.
With a 28.2% strikeout rate, Giolito can go head-to-head with any pitcher on tonight's slate and we are getting his strikeout prop at plus money (+124). Giolito comes in with seven strikeouts or more in 7 of his last 10 starts, showing he is one of the most consistent pitchers in the majors.
He will be up against the Kansas City Royals, who come in with a 22.2% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the seventh-lowest in the league. Yes, the Royals don't strike out a ton versus righties, and the under 6.5 strikeouts (-154) has too much juice. I'd look to side with Giolito's pure strikeout upside at plus money.
