3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 7/23/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Trey Mancini To Hit a Home Run (+420)
A home run prone pitcher in a hitter's park? Yeah, sign me up.
That is what we have tonight with Patrick Corbin on the mound visiting the Baltimore Orioles, which is a great hitter's park. When I say Corbin is a home run prone pitcher, that's due to him allowing 1.91 HR/9 to right-handed hitters with a 4.92 xFIP and 20.0% HR/FB rate. Anytime you see numbers like that, you should immediately look to the opposing team for some home run potential.
This is where Trey Mancini comes into the fold with his .274 ISO, 151 wRC+, 38.7% fly-ball rate, and 22.2% HR/FB rate versus left-handed pitchers. Mancini is still looking for his first home run on this side of the All-Star break, and this is the matchup to help get that done.
Yuli Gurriel To Hit a Home Run (+480)
The Houston Astros have a high 4.95 implied run total tonight, and some of that should come via the long ball.
The Astros are always primed for some home runs, and tonight isn't going to be any different. They are taking on Kolby Allard, who is allowing 1.54 HR/9 with a 40.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.0% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season. Allard has allowed 12 home runs this season, 9 of which have come via righty hitters.
This means we want a righty bat from the Astros who can elevate the ball, which leads us to Yulieski Gurriel, who comes in with a .235 ISO, 152 wRC+, and big 46.3% fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. He has the power, he elevates the ball, and he has juicy odds on top of it all.
Lucas Giolito Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-108)
There are a few aces on tonight's slate, but Lucas Giolito's strikeout prop stands out.
Giolito comes in with seven strikeouts or more in seven of his last 10 starts, along with pitching at least 6.0 innings in seven of those 10 games. He is one of the most consistent pitchers this season and is showing that with his 29.2% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate, 3.57 SIERA, and 50.7% medium-contact rate. Giolito has always been a solid option for strikeout props, and tonight's matchup should let him push towards his upper limit.
He will be going up against the Milwaukee Brewers, who come in with a 25.6% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst mark in the league. Side with one of the best pitchers in the league to keep his strikeouts going, as this prop has very little juice on the over.