3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 7/22/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Mitch Garver To Hit a Home Run (+310)/Josh Donaldson To Hit a Home Run (+320)
For the second time this week, I can't decide between two players so we're going for both tonight.
Those players are Mitch Garver and Josh Donaldson from the Minnesota Twins, who will be going up against Andrew Heaney. When it comes to targeting pitchers on tonight's slate for home runs, Heaney is nearly the perfect option, since he struggles immensely versus right-handed hitters. Heaney is allowing 1.99 HR/9 to righties, along with a 43.4% fly-ball rate, and a 19.7% HR/FB ratio. Heaney has been a pitcher I've target all season long, so we're not stopping now.
Both Garver and Donaldson fit the mold of what I look for to a tee. Garver has a .295 ISO, a 55.3% fly-ball rate, and a 39.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers. Donaldson comes in with a .263 ISO, a 35.1% fly-ball rate, and a 43.9% hard-contact rate versus lefties. The Twins are primed for multiple home runs tonight against Heaney, this is as easy as it gets.
Paul Goldschmidt To Hit a Home Run (+400)
Paul Goldschmidt has been on fire since the All-Star break and he won't be slowing down tonight.
In the six games since the All-Star break, Goldschmidt has 4 home runs, a clear surge in power since he had only 12 home runs in the first half of the season. Jumping on board with a player who is on a "hot streak" is not something I normally do. If a player has a good matchup against a home run prone pitcher, I'm going to target him regardless if he's hot or cold. If his underlying batted-ball metrics are there, then that's what I'll stick with, and that's exactly what we have with Goldy tonight.
He comes in with a .214 ISO, a 40.0% fly-ball rate, and a 42.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Oh yeah, one more thing. Goldy has 16 home runs this season, all 16 of them have come against right-handed pitchers.
Sean Manaea Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+112)
If the Seattle Mariners are going to continue striking out at a high rate, we'll continue to target them for strikeout props.
This season versus left-handed pitchers, the Mariners hold a 26.7% strikeout rate, which the fourth-worst in the league. This shouldn't be a surprise as the Mariners are one of the weaker teams in the league. It's a solid matchup for most pitchers going up against that lineup and tonight that would be Sean Manaea, who comes in with a 25.3% strikeout rate this season, along with a solid 3.72 xFIP.
Manaea has managed to rack up six strikeouts or more in 8 of his last 10 starts, as well as seven strikeouts or more in 5 of those 10 starts. He is right at the prop of 6.5 strikeouts nearly every start and with the plus money on the over, trust the easy matchup to push him over the total.
