MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 7/20/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Yankees
Yankees +1.5 (-150): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Yankees Moneyline (+108): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Over 9.0 (-108): 1-Star Rating Out of 5
Our algorithm likes three bets in this matchup between the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies, though not enough to dish out more than one star for any of them.
While these squads are not seeing adequate returns on their second- (Yankees) and fifth-highest (Phillies) payrolls in the league, that doesn't mean that we can't make a buck off their expensive mediocrity.
The Phillies will have their former ace, Aaron Nola, toeing the rubber, hence the 1.5 runline in their favor. While Nola was one of the league's most consistent pitchers from 2017 through 2020, this season has been an entirely different story. The 28-year-old has ceded four or more earned runs on seven different occasions this season, including in 4 of his 10 starts away from home.
Road struggles are nothing new for Nola, as he sports a 5.08 ERA in 170 innings away from Citizens Bank Park since 2019 -- that's more than two runs higher than what he's accrued at home during that stretch (2.99).
As a unit, Philly has struggled mightily to as favorites in 2021, failing to cover the runline in 27 of 39 outings. They've also won just 4 of the 12 games in which they've been favored on the road.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will have their own model of inconsistency on the mound, this time in the form of Domingo German. The 28-year-old right-hander boasts a 4.72 ERA on the season, though his 4.13 SIERA implies that he hasn't been that bad. That said, his 9.28 ERA over his last 21 1/3 innings means we should be expecting any Jacob deGrom-like outings from German tonight.
Between Nola's road struggles and German's recent Orpah-like generosity, the over seems like an easy play. And given that numberFire's model give the Yanks a 51.6% chance of winning this game outright, betting them on the runline and moneyline is also in play tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 9.0 (-106): 3-Stars Out of 5
While watching the synthetic turf at Chase Stadium grow might be more exciting than this matchup, our model does see an excellent opportunity for betting value here.
The total for this bout currently sits at nine runs, which means it's an absolutely titillating opportunity for bettors. The Arizona Diamondbacks enter this game with a 5.40 team ERA, which is good for second-worst in the majors, and their 4.77 xFIP is also second-worst. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates possess the sixth-worst ERA (4.84) and third-worst xFIP (4.62), per FanGraphs. In other words, neither team does that whole "pitching" thing very well.
The DBacks will have rookie Taylor Widener on the mound tonight. The 26-year-old hurler has a 2.54 ERA this season, though that's about as real as LeBron James' hairline in Space Jame 2. Through 48 1/3 major league innings, Widener has a 5.66 FIP and 5.37 xFIP. That's...not good.
Meanwhile, the Buccos will have southpaw Tyler Anderson toeing the rubber. The lefty's 5.22 ERA and 4.99 xFIP since 2019 is a dream for those betting on the over. Our algo rates it as a three-star wager.
