MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/20/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at FanDuel Sportsbook, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Bryce Harper To Hit a Home Run (+220)
Rhys Hoskins To Hit a Home Run (+330)

Since I can't pick just one player on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight, we're going to look at two players. Both Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are in a great matchup tonight to hit home runs, putting them both at the top of my list.

They are on the road to take on the New York Yankees, giving us a fantastic hitter's park as a backdrop for their potential power tonight. They will be taking on Domingo German, who is struggling this year versus both left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters, so it doesn't matter who we target him with.

Against lefty hitters, German has a low 21.6% strikeout rate and is allowing 1.64 HR/9 with a 46.9% fly-ball rate and 42.1% hard-contact rate. Versus righty hitters, German is allowing 1.85 HR/9 with a 39.0% fly-ball rate and 31.6% hard-contact rate. While the hard-contact rate is lower versus righty hitters, German's HR/FB rate is at 17.0%, which is higher than his 13.2% rater versus lefties. He is giving up home runs more frequently versus righties despite a lower hard-contact rate.

All of that is great because we have plenty of power when it comes to Harper and Hoskins. For Harper, he has a .295 ISO, 39.3% fly-ball rate, and 49.3% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers, reaching the lovely 40-40 line. As for Hoskins, he has a .220 ISO, 50.0% fly-ball rate, and 31.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Even though he has a lower hard-contact rate versus righties, that hasn't impacted him too much this season, as 12 of his 20 home runs are off of right-handed pitchers.

Gavin Sheets To Hit a Home Run (+450)

The Chicago White Sox are primed for plenty of home runs tonight.

Why are they primed for home runs? That is because they are going up against Bailey Ober, who is struggling in his first year in MLB. Yes, I understand he has only pitched 33.0 innings, and that's a small sample size. But what we have also seen is that he is allowing a 5.77 xFIP and 2.93 HR/9 with a 45.1% fly-ball rate and 39.6% hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters. Sure, it's that same sample size, but his minor league numbers show he is still that same fly-ball pitcher who is prone to giving up home runs.

Since we are dealing with some uncertainly here, taking a bit of a longer shot can't hurt. That means I'll look to Gavin Sheets, who has a .475 ISO, a 206 wORC+, 48.5% fly-ball rate, and 51.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters this season.

It's a smaller sample size on both sides, but the juicier odds make up for it.

Shane McClanahan Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Shane McClanahan's strikeout prop is a bit too high tonight.

The under on 6.5 strikeouts for McClanahan's strikeout prop is looking like a solid bet for a few reasons tonight. While he does have a strong 28.2% strikeout rate this season, it comes from a smaller 60.0 inning sample size. On top of that, McClanahan has started 13 games this season but has yet to pitch more than 6.0 innings. He is a young pitcher, and the Tampa Bay Rays are keeping him on a short leash. So what does this mean?

If McClanahan isn't able to get the strikeouts going early, he might have trouble reach seven strikeouts, as he won't be going too deep in the game.

We also have to factor in his opponent, the Baltimore Orioles, who may not be a great team but hold a 22.0% strikeout rate versus left-handed pitchers, which is the eighth-lowest in the league. For all of the struggles the Orioles have, they are actually very disciplined at the plate and limit the strikeouts from opposing pitchers in this split.