FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 7/20/21
Tuesday's 13-game main slate doesn't bring many sure things at pitcher, but we can look towards a handful of guys for upside. On the other hand, there's plenty to choose from for our stacks, particularly with Coors Field on the menu.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Although the Yankees haven't lived up to expectations, they're still showing a respectable 4.33 implied total, as Nola will still have to contend with hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, warm temperatures, and a DH. However, New York is still missing Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela due to COVID-19, so this isn't a particularly deep lineup at the moment, and their active roster carries a 24.3% strikeout rate versus righties.
As for Nola, his performances were up and down prior to hitting the COVID-19 list, but he's posted a fantastic 3.02 xFIP, 31.8% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate since the beginning of June, so he's performed better than the results might suggest.
Yu Darvish ($11,200): Darvish is returning from the injured list following a minor hip issue, so it's possible his pitch count is slightly lower tonight, but Darvish claims to be 100 percent. We'll have to monitor the weather again, as well, but other than that, Darvish is the obvious guy to keep pace with Nola. The Braves' offense isn't as imposing without Ronald Acuna, and they also offer punchout upside with a 25.1% strikeout rate versus righties.
Darvish has been rock solid all season, and much like Nola, despite mixed results lately, he's put up a 3.52 xFIP, 29.5% strikeout rate, and 5.1% walk rate since the start of June. The sizable gap in salary gives the edge to Nola overall, but Darvish is right there with him in terms of ceiling.
Skubal does struggle with walks (9.8% rate) and dingers (1.9 home runs per nine innings), but he's still managed a 4.07 SIERA this year, and his 27.1% strikeout rate has helped him to the occasional big FanDuel score. Skubal hasn't shown any noticeable dip in production since the foreign substance crackdown, either, and he consistently exceeds 90 pitches in his starts.
Toronto Blue Jays: Yes, it's a Coors Field slate, but we're going to start with the Blue Jays instead, who will enjoy a tantalizing matchup against Boston's Garrett Richards. You see, Toronto's 6.06 implied total isn't that far off of the Rockies' mark of 6.23, which goes to show just how much Richards has scuffled lately.
In this post-sticky stuff era, Richards continues to be one of the most obvious cases of someone who has really fallen off. Since the start of June, Richards has only managed an ugly 5.26 xFIP, 14.1% strikeout rate, and 9.2% walk rate. And while he's managed to post a high ground-ball rate versus lefties over this span, that won't do him any good against Toronto's army of righties, as he's managed just a 38.4% ground-ball rate in same-sided matchups while coughing up 2.0 homers per nine innings.
Keep an eye on the weather, but if the game looks playable, it shouldn't be hard to load up on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4,500) and friends on a slate where you don't necessarily need to spend a ton of cap space at pitcher. Any of the top six projected batters in the order can be building blocks tonight.
Cincinnati Reds: Robert Stock has only made two starts (eight innings) this year, but a 6.48 SIERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, and 20.5% walk rate doesn't exactly inspire confidence -- particularly when those starts have come with two different uniforms on after getting designated for assignment by the Cubs earlier this year. The 31-year-old isn't some young prospect, either, spending the prior three seasons as a mediocre bullpen arm. In total, he owns a career 23.2% strikeout rate and 12.1% walk rate across 71 2/3 innings.
Although Nick Castellanos isn't starting tonight, that does leave us with a true value stack from top to bottom, as Jesse Winker ($3,200) has the highest salary of the bunch and is the only one exceeding $2,800. Along with Winker, Joey Votto ($2,800) and Tyler Naquin ($2,200) will enjoy the platoon advantage, while the righty sticks include Jonathan India ($2,700) batting leadoff, along with cheap pop from guys like Aristides Aquino ($2,100) and Eugenio Suarez ($2,600).
Colorado Rockies: Yeah, the Rockies figure to be popular, but they're up against a low-strikeout, fly-ball pitcher at Coors, and it's a hot evening with the wind blowing out. Left-hander Marco Gonzales has given up 12 of his 15 home runs to right-handed batters, which comes to a whopping 2.9 per nine innings in the split. That barrage of home runs shouldn't shock us when he's only striking out 20.3% of righties he's faced while allowing a 47.9% fly-ball rate. Add in walk issues on top of all this, and the Rockies could really roll tonight.
We could get two low-salaried righty sticks atop the order in Garrett Hampson ($2,900) and Brendan Rodgers ($2,900), which could make it that much easier to include Trevor Story ($3,800) and/or C.J. Cron ($3,700) in stacks.
Gonzales has a low strikeout rate against lefties, too, so Ryan McMahon ($3,500) is someone to consider who might not draw as much attention. He has a career .215 ISO versus southpaws.