3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/7/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Marcus Semien to Hit a Home Run (+270)

How many home runs are the Toronto Blue Jays going to hit tonight off of Matt Harvey?

It's not if the Blue Jays are going to hit home runs, it's how many are they going to hit? We can ask that question anytime Harvey is on the mound due to the number of home runs -- 1.60 HR/9 -- he is allowing to right-handed hitters this season. With all the power the Blue Jays have in their lineup tonight, Harvey could be looking at a short outing, and that's fine by me.

Marcus Semien is a player I have an eye on tonight due to his .257 ISO, 138 wRC+, 45.9% fly-ball rate, and 36.5% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers. Despite this being a righty versus righty matchup, Semien brings plenty of power to the plate and should be able to put that on full display against Harvey.

Tommy Pham to Hit a Home Run (+460)

Patrick Corbin is bad against right-handed hitters and you should look to target him tonight.

I can say Corbin is bad against righties as a factual statement because he was on my season-long fantasy team this year and I've tilted many a time about his outings. To back that up, Corbin comes in allowing 2.14 HR/9 to right-handed hitters, along with a 4.72 xFIP, and a 22.5% HR/FB ratio this season.

This means looking for righty power hitters on the San Diego Padres tonight and there are several great options to consider. Of course, Fernando Tatis Jr. is fantastic but his odds are only at +200. We want something a bit juicier and that is Tommy Pham at +460. He comes in with a .183 ISO, a 46.5% fly-ball rate, and a 37.2% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers this season. Love that power upside and love the fantastic odds.

Antonio Senzatela Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-128)

Even though Antonio Senzatela isn't a big strikeout pitcher, you should still consider his strikeout prop tonight.

Senzatela has a 15.5% strikeout rate this season, which simply isn't close to being high. He isn't a strikeout pitcher, never has been, and likely never will be. However, in his last five starts, Senzatela has managed to post a 17.9% strikeout rate or higher three times, which has equaled five strikeouts or more three times, and four strikeouts or more in all five starts. Yes, it's a small sample size but he is at least showing the potential to grab some strikeouts if the matchup allows it.

Speaking of the matchups, three of those five starts came against teams in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. Who is Senzatela facing tonight? The Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a 24.5% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers, which is the 12th-worst in the league. Senzatela seemingly only reaches for more strikeouts if the opposing team is undisciplined at the plate, which is what he has tonight.