FanDuel Pitching Primer: Tuesday 7/6/21
In daily fantasy baseball, success starts with nailing the starting pitcher spot in your lineup.
When compared to hitters, pitching performance tends to be much more predictable and stable throughout the course of the season. You know what you're getting from a top-level ace when you roster him: probably a dominant effort with only one or two implosions per season. In contrast, even the game's best hitters have days at the plate when they go 0-for-4.
As a result, lineup construction should begin with the starting pitcher. Which pitchers should you consider on today's main slate?
High-Salaried Play
Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
Vs. Milwaukee Brewers
FanDuel Salary: $11,800
It is a monster main slate on Tuesday, and I know I might use that saying a lot, but it's true. There are eight -- EIGHT -- pitchers at $9,500 or more tonight, so the pool is definitely stratified heavily towards the top end.
In his last start, I was very bearish on the prospects of starting mega star Jacob deGrom. Entering that game, he was somewhat limited by the New York Mets, and rightfully so, after a few injuries. DeGrom had not reached double-digit strikeouts very often lately -- in fact, he had only hit that mark twice in his last 10 outings.
But the GOAT obliterated that trend in his last start. He whiffed 14 hitters over seven scoreless innings, showing off his usual dominant stuff. I am back on him tonight with a matchup against a Milwaukee Brewers team that strikes out a ton (25.9%) and ranks bottom 10 in wOBA. Play the top-end arm with a ton of confidence.
Mid-Salaried Play
Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks
Vs. Colorado Rockies
FanDuel Salary: $8,800
There are a plethora of interesting mid-salaried arms, but none more than Merrill Kelly of the Arizona Diamondbacks sticks out to me tonight.
Quietly, despite a horrendous stretch for the Snakes, Kelly has been outstanding. Over the last month spanning 28 innings pitched, Kelly has logged a delightful 3.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with nearly a strikeout per inning.
Most expect the Colorado Rockies, Kelly's opponent tonight, to be sellers at the trade deadline, and their currently constructed roster has been poor. Over the last two weeks, they rank dead last in nearly every statistical category on offense. With the Rockies outside of the friendly confines of Coors, I really like Kelly.
Low-Salaried Play
Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees
At Seattle Mariners
FanDuel Salary: $7,100
If you need to find a place to save a bit, Jameson Taillon could make a ton of sense at the end of the pitching options.
While there are some obvious concerns with the pitching profile of Taillon, including his mediocre 32.4% ground-ball rate in 2021, there are also plenty of reasons to be high on him. Coming back from a major injury, the righty has logged a 24.1% strikeout rate this season, and he has done a solid job in limiting free passes with a 6.4% walk rate.
The Mariners? They provide that juicy strikeout upside we so desperately crave and like to target, sporting a mark of 26.4% this season. Taillon could be primed at the pump for a big night.
Matt Kupferle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Matt Kupferle also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username MKupferle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.
