MLB

FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 7/6/21

It's a Jacob deGrom night, so the top hurler is crystal clear, but who are the top alternatives if you want to pivot elsewhere? And we sure aren't lacking in terms of stacks, with some of our favorite offenses in plus matchups tonight.

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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.

Pitchers

Jacob deGrom ($11,800): In his most recent start, deGrom coughed up three earned runs in the first inning against Atlanta -- the first time he's allowed that many in a game all season -- and it looked like an underwhelming fantasy night was underway. Of course, then all deGrom did was pile up 14 punchouts on his way to 58 FanDuel points, his best score since posting the exact same total on June 11. He was also allowed to log 93 pitches, marking his first start with over 90 pitches since the end of April. While deGrom has now allowed multiple runs in back-to-back starts, the arrow appears to be pointing up again in terms of health and workload, and this is an easy draw tonight against the Brewers, a team with a 25.7% strikeout rate versus right-handers this season.

Carlos Rodon ($10,600) and Aaron Nola ($10,000): I'm listing these two together because they're the next guys who stand out after deGrom, but they both also have weather working against them. In Rodon's case, rain could foul things up in Minnesota, while Nola has to contend with hitter-friendly winds at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, who carry a less than ideal 4.66 implied total. But with strikeout rates of 36.3% and 29.4%, respectively, when strictly looking at upside, Rodon and Nola are the most likely candidates to keep pace with deGrom.

Of the two, I give Nola the slight edge due to having a better matchup and lower salary. The Cubs not only have one of the highest strikeout rates in the league versus righties (26.6%), but they're in the midst of a brutal 10-game losing streak, so they haven't exactly been in top form lately. While Nola's June was a mixed bag, including a subpar outing against the Marlins most recently, his peripheral numbers have been outstanding with a 3.13 SIERA, 31.8% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate over his last six starts.

Luis Castillo ($8,500): If you don't want to mess with the weather in those other games, or simply want to open up more salary space to differentiate from deGrom lineups, things get a bit trickier. Most of the other quality arms on the board are in tougher matchups, making it more difficult to find guys with logical paths to high ceilings. Ian Anderson arguably has the easiest path to a solid floor against the lowly Pirates, but the Pirates are a low-strikeout team, and Anderson's posted a ho-hum 21.9% strikeout rate over the past 30 days. He should put up his fair share of points but may fall short of the type of score we need in tournaments.

On the other hand, Castillo has shown some signs of life lately with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 59.0% ground-ball rate over that same span, so maybe he can clamp down the Royals tonight. There's no question Castillo has been one of the bigger disappoints in 2021, but his stellar track record speaks for itself, and it isn't unreasonable to think he can put up better numbers in the second half. Although Kansas City isn't a big strikeout team, either, they own a 90 wRC+ versus righties, so this is still a plus spot for Castillo overall.

Others to Consider: Ian Anderson ($8,400)

Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays: Spenser Watkins is making his first career MLB start tonight and just his second overall appearance. He only logged one inning in his debut last week, so it's unclear how deep he'll pitch into this game, but he made six starts in Triple-A before getting called up, so he could have some leeway. Let's hope he's in there for a while, though, because we're talking about a 28-year-old career minor leaguer finally getting a shot, and his numbers reflect that. He owns a 5.25 xFIP and 20.0% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year and put up similar marks at the same level in 2019.

Watkins will have his work cut out for him against the Blue Jays, and a warm evening at hitter-friendly Camden Yards will only further stack the deck against him. All the high-salaried sluggers are desirable as always, but if you're rostering deGrom, you can still load up on this lineup with guys like Teoscar Hernandez ($3,400), Cavan Biggio ($2,700), Randal Grichuk ($3,000), and Lourdes Gurriel ($3,100) in the bottom half of the order.

Philadelphia Phillies: If we're worried about the winds at Wrigley Field for Aaron Nola, that also means his offense will benefit from the conditions, and that's especially the case when the opposing pitcher is Jake Arrieta. Perhaps just as importantly, this is a perfect stack for deGrom lineups because once we get past Bryce Harper ($3,800), every other bat in the order is at $3,200 and below.

It's hard to find many positives in Arrieta's numbers, as he comes in with a 5.00 SIERA, 18.6% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate, and 41.9% ground-ball rate. That last number won't help him at Wrigley, and he's already allowed 1.98 dingers per nine innings as is.

Arrieta has a lower ground-ball rate against lefties, so in addition to Harper, we can look to Odubel Herrera ($2,500) and Didi Gregorius ($2,500) as viable salary-savers. But Arrieta has poor marks against righties, too, and with the lower salaries across the board, we have lots of flexibility to mix and match as needed. Rhys Hoskins ($3,200), J.T. Realmuto ($3,000), Andrew McCutchen ($2,900) are all potential righty power options.

Cincinnati Reds: The Yankees and Braves are both in plus matchups, and they also have plenty of low-salaried players if you need that extra cap space. But let's highlight the Reds here, who are up against Kris Bubic. The young southpaw is another guy struggling to keep the ball in the park, allowing 2.06 per nine innings, and his other numbers don't inspire confidence between a 19.2% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate.

Nick Castellanos ($4,000) is the man you want if you can fit him in, but we can find value righties who will enjoy the platoon advantage in Eugenio Suarez ($2,900), Tyler Stephenson ($2,500), and Aristides Aquino ($2,200). Bubic doesn't have amazing numbers in same-sided matchups, though, so keep Jesse Winker ($4,200) and Joey Votto ($3,400) in the mix, too.

Others to Consider: New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers