3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/6/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Gio Urshela to Hit a Home Run (+470)

With juicy home run odds, Gio Urshela is worth taking a look at tonight.

The New York Yankees are -156 road favorites and have an implied team total at 5.16, indicating they are in a spot to score some runs. They are on the road to take on the Seattle Mariners, who will have Justus Sheffield on the mound. This season, Sheffield is allowing a .391 wOBA, 4.74 xFIP, 1.80 homers per nine (HR/9), and 40.2% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters. When we see stats such as those, we should be actively targeting this type of pitcher due to the homers they allow.

This leads us to Urshela, who comes in with a .195 ISO, 115 wRC+, and an 18.8% homer-per-fly-ball ratio versus left-handed pitchers this season. Although this is a negative park shift for the Yankees, Sheffield has allowed 13 home runs this season, 5 of which have come via right-handed hitters while at home.

Joey Gallo to Hit a Home Runs (+230)

Joey Gallo is on fire right now, and you don't want to miss out on another home run.

Gallo comes in with eight homers in his last 10 games and has one of the juiciest matchups on the slate to keep the hot streak going. He will be going up against Jose Urena, who is giving up too many home runs this season, which is nothing new for him. Specifically, Urena is allowing a 5.67 xFIP, 1.95 HR/9, an 8.7% strikeout rate, 37.9% hard-contact rate, and a 20.5% homer-per-fly-ball rate versus left-handed hitters. Those are some of the worst numbers you will find on tonight's slate for pitchers, so you absolutely want to be targeting him.

For Gallo, he is bringing plenty of power versus right-handed pitchers -- what else is new? He comes in with a .238 ISO, 133 wRC+, 46.5% fly-ball rate, and 38.0% hard-contact rate in the split this season. Gallo has always been the traditional power-hitting lefty, and when he is hot at the plate, you want to jump on board.

Jose Berrios Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-146)

With a tougher matchup in front of him, Jose Berrios could be hitting the under on his strikeout prop tonight.

Berrios will be taking on the Chicago White Sox, and this matchup has a few things worth noting. First off, the White Sox have a 23.1% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitchers this season, with is just the 18th-highest in the league. Next, the White Sox have a 10.7% walk rate against righties, which is the third-highest, meaning they are very selective and smart at the plate with not chasing pitches. Another note towards the under.

We flip to Berrios, who has a modest 24.7% strikeout rate this season and coming off a start against this very same White Sox lineup in which he had no punchouts in five innings. The power in the White Sox lineup is always an issue, which could force Berrios out of the game early, leaving no chance for the over on this strikeout prop.