3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 6/29/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Ryan McMahon to Hit a Home Run (+260)
The Colorado Rockies are at home in Coors Field, and that means we want to be looking there for some home runs.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are the visiting team and will have Chase De Jong on the mound tonight. De Jong has been in the Majors for a few seasons and comes in with a career 6.26 xFIP, 1.25 HR/9, 46.6% fly-ball rate, and 35.8% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters. Giving up too many fly balls is already tough on pitchers, but add in Coors Field, and we are talking big-time home run potential.
Ryan McMahon has some serious power while at home versus right-handed pitchers with a .333 ISO, 149 wRC+, 43.4% fly-ball rate, and 47.4% hard-contact rate. The matchup couldn't be a better fit for McMahon, and he is looking like a great candidate to knock one out of the park tonight.
Robbie Ray over 8.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Robbie Ray has a dream matchup tonight versus the Seattle Mariners.
Listen, we all know the Mariners aren't a good team, so let's cut right to the chase. They come in with a 27.5% strikeout rate this season versus left-handed pitchers, which is the fifth-worst in the league. They are below-average in nearly any offensive metric you can assume, so we're trusting Ray tonight.
Ray comes in with a very strong 31.0% strikeout rate this season, a 6.3% walk rate -- which is the best of his career -- and a 3.16 xFIP. Those strikeouts have been on full display this season with Ray posting nine strikeouts or more in 6 of his last 10 starts. As long as Ray can keep the pitch count down early and limit the walks, he shouldn't have any issue reaching for 10-plus strikeouts against the Mariners.
Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+220)
The Kansas City Royals are getting a positive park shift being in Boston, and you want to take advantage of that.
Anytime a team is getting a park upgrade and facing a home run prone pitcher, your eyes should light up. That is what we have with Salvador Perez tonight because he is up against Nick Pivetta at Fenway Park. Pivetta is a good pitcher -- certainly not great -- and is struggling this year with home runs, as he has throughout his entire career. Pivetta is allowing 1.75 HR/9, a 44.1% fly-ball rate, and a 33.8% hard-contact rate versus right-handed hitters while at home this season.
Too many fly balls at Fenway Park won't end well for any pitcher. Add in some hot weather, and it looks like a fantastic hitting environment. Perez comes in with a .183 ISO, 34.6% fly-ball rate, and 39.0% hard-contact rate versus righty pitchers this season.
