4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Monday 6/28/21

With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.

An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.

That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.

Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's nine-game main slate.

Zack Greinke, SP, Houston Astros ($8,700)

Tonight's slate features just one pitcher -- Trevor Bauer ($11,000) -- with a salary in the five figures, and he's followed by three solid options in the $9,300-$9,800 range. However, if you want to save a bit more than that, you can look to the veteran Zack Greinke in your SP slot tonight.

Nothing about Greinke's numbers inspires confidence from a DFS standpoint. The 37-year-old sports a 17.9% strikeout rate, 4.15 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, and 4.46 SIERA, according to FanGraphs. That said, he has shown the ability to rack up solid fantasy totals this season, especially of late.

In four of his last seven starts, Greinke has compiled FanDuel outputs of 41, 43, 43, and 55 points, with the former coming last Tuesday against tonight's opponent, the Baltimore Orioles.

On the season, Baltimore's 81 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching ranks second-worst in the majors. Their 25.0% strikeout rate in that split is 11th-worst. All in all, this is a good spot for Greinke.

Myles Straw, OF, Houston Astros ($2,400)

According to numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, the Houston Astros' 5.88 implied run total is second to only the Boston Red Sox' 6.04 tonight. For the second time in less than a week, Houston will get to square off against Orioles starter Thomas Eshelman, who they pummeled for eight hits and six earned runs in just four innings his last time out.

The start to Eshelman's big league career has gone about as smoothly as driving down a busy New York City street in rush hour. Through 79.1 innings, the right-hander possesses a 5.45 ERA, 5.96 xFIP, and 12.1% strikeout rate. He's also ceding 2.38 homers per nine innings. Woof.

Anyone in Houston's lineup can be included in a stack, but Myles Straw might be the top value play of the bunch. Over his last 20 games (82 plate appearances), Straw is hitting .377 with a .958 OPS, 15 runs scored, 8 RBI, and 5 steals. He's also managed a 12.2% walk rate while striking out at just a 15.9% clip during that stretch. That'll play.

Michael Chavis, 1B/2B, Boston Red Sox ($2,400)

As I mentioned above, Boston's 6.04 implied total is the highest on tonight's slate, which means we'll want plenty of exposure to their lineup.

The Red Sox will be going up against Danny Duffy and the Kansas City Royals, and seeing as though Duffy has only totaled three innings and 57 pitches in his last two outings, they're likely to face the bullpen for a majority of the game. That's great news for Boston's lineup since Kansas City's pen has accrued a 4.25 SIERA and 4.63 xFIP, both of which rank fifth-worst in the majors this season.

Michael Chavis was recently recalled from the minors to fill in for Christian Arroyo, and he found himself batting leadoff in each of his three starts. If he finds himself at the top of the order again, he's worth a look as cheap exposure to a hefty implied total.

Josh Bell, 1B, Wahington Nationals ($2,900)

The New York Mets will have righty Jerad Eickhoff toeing the rubber tonight, and that should be a welcome sight for the bats of the Washington Nationals.

In 67.2 innings since 2018, Eickhoff has been pelted for a 5.45 ERA, 5.95 FIP, 45.1% fly-ball rate, 44.8% hard-hit rate, and 2.5 dongs per nine frames. If you isolate his numbers to just opposite-handed hitters, his ERA jumps to 8.87 and his FIP to 8.82, and that's to go with a 1.091 OPS and 4.2 HR/9 (!!). Wowza.

Enter Josh Bell. Since 2019, the switch-hitting slugger has a .890 OPS, .261 ISO, and 129 wRC+ versus right-handed hurlers. This season, 9 of Bell's 11 dingers, 26 of his 32 runs, and 28 of his 34 RBI have all come against righties. He's a solid target at a sub-$3,000 salary.