4 Daily Fantasy Baseball Value Plays for Friday 6/25/21
With production being highly variable on a night-to-night basis, daily fantasy baseball plays a bit differently than other sports.
An 0-for-4 dud from a chalky high-salaried slugger is a lot more common than a total dud from a top-salaried NBA player or even than a stinker from a top quarterback or running back.
That means that it's not uncommon for value plays to end up doing the heavy lifting in carrying your lineup. The fact that they can be the difference between a good and a great lineup isn't much different than other sports, but value plays being able to make up for a whiff on a high-salaried play completely is somewhat unique.
Let's get right into it and take a look at the top value options on today's loaded 13-game main slate.
Mike Minor, SP, Kansas City Royals ($8,200)
We have a bit of a strange slate at pitcher tonight -- despite the fact that there are 13 games, only two hurlers come in with five-figure salaries. There are a couple of mid-range starters in good spots, but the one who stands out to me at his salary is Mike Minor.
The Kansas City Royals southpaw got off to a bit of a rough start but his numbers are starting to come around. While his ERA comes in at 4.48, his underlying numbers suggest that he's been better than that. The 33-year-old has a 4.02 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA on the season, and in 50.1 innings since May 15, Minor's posted a 3.58 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, and 27.2% strikeout rate.
Those numbers should play well against a below-average Texas Rangers offense, one that especially struggles against lefties. In 2021, Texas' 83 wRC+ versus southpaws is the third-worst mark in the Majors.
Minor has racked up 39, 42, 43, 49, and 52 FanDuel points in five of his last eight outings, and he could easily be in that range again tonight.
Abraham Toro, 3B, Houston Astros ($2,500)
It's become a daily tradition to include at least one player from the Houston Astros in this spot, so why stop now? Per numberFire's Matchup Heat Map, Houston's 5.74 implied run total is second to only the Toronto Blue Jays' 6.31.
Tonight, the 'Stros will be taking on Wily Peralta and the Detroit Tigers. Peralta has totaled 46.2 innings since 2019, and the results have not been pretty. During that stretch, he's pitched to the tune of a 5.98 ERA, 5.81 xFIP, 13.2% K rate, and 10.7% walk rate all while ceding a WHIP of 1.59 and 1.7 homers per nine frames. During that stretch, lefties have absolutely obliterated the 32-year-old righty. His numbers against them? An 11.09 ERA, 1.090 OPS, 9.15 FIP, and 3.9 HR/9. Yikes.
We can basically include any Houston hitter in a stack tonight, but Abraham Toro looks like the top value play. In his seven games since rejoining the big league team, Toro has posted a .370 average, 1.061 OPS, 10 RBI, and a 1:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Wil Myers, OF, San Diego Padres ($2,600)
To date, the 25-year-old sports a 6.94 ERA, 5.84 xFIP, 1.91 WHIP, and 14.0% walk rate, and he's ceding 2.83 dongs per nine innings. Sheesh. Martin has been particularly dreadful in same-sided matchups, as righties have pummeled him for a .329 average, 1.177 OPS, .478 wOBA, and 4.76 homers per nine (yeah, you read that right).
The San Diego Padres will be the lucky team to draw Martin tonight, and they have a healthy 5.24 implied run total. While most of their bats will cost you $2,900 at minimum, Wil Myers stands out as a solid economical play. Meyers has five extra-base hits, four RBI, three runs scored, and a stolen base just over his last six games alone. Ride the hot hand here.
Aristides Aquino, OF, Cincinnati Reds ($2,400)
In 202 innings since 2019, Smyly has ceded an average of 2.2 round-trippers per nine innings, and that's accompanied by a 5.52 ERA. He's been equally generous to hitters from sides of the plate, but the Reds have some cheap bats who have been smashing lefties lately.
Aristides Aquino has had 96 plate appearances versus southpaws in his career, and he's racked up a .876 OPS and .318 ISO in those trips to the plate. That'll play.
Tyler Stephenson ($2,500) and Jonathan India ($2,900) are two other cheap plays from Cincy worth considering. Stephenson has a career .298 ISO and 132 wRC+ versus left-handed hurlers, while India has a .326 average and 138 wRC+ in that split.