MLB

3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/25/21

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.

Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Jonathan Schoop to Hit a Home Run (+650)

Jonathan Schoop has bombarded left-handers this year, and he's up against Framber Valdez tonight.

In the split in 2021, Schoop owns a 46.2% hard-hit rate, 38.5% fly-ball rate and .428 wOBA. He's got six homers in 76 plate appearances with the platoon advantage. It's not a one-year fluke, either, as Schoop posted a 46.8% hard-hit rate, 40.3% fly-ball rate and .376 wOBA against southpaws in 2019. And overall, the Detroit Tigers' infielder is scorching hot this month, putting up a gaudy .493 wOBA and 44.3% hard-hit rate with 10 taters in June.

Valdez is a quality pitcher, but his strikeout rate is 21.7% against righties, compared to 25.0% versus left-handers. He's permitted 20 jacks in his career, and 19 of them have come to right-handed bats.

Given Schoop's track record against lefties and how well he's swinging it of late, the +650 price on him to go deep is a pretty enticing number.

Joey Wendle to Hit a Home Run (+1100)

This is a really big price for a good left-handed bat going up against a blah right-handed pitcher.

Joey Wendle is thriving this year against righties, and he'll see Griffin Canning in this one. Wendle is sporting a .402 wOBA with a lowly 17.8% strikeout rate in the split. He's hit seven homers this season, and all of them have come against right-handed pitchers.

As for Canning, he's much worse against left-handed hitters. In the split, he's struggled to a 5.40 xFIP this season with a 19.6% strikeout rate that is a big drop from his 27.9% strikeout rate in righty-righty matchups.

Wendle isn't as much of a power guy as he is just a solid all-around hitter, but I like getting him to go yard at this big number in what is a pretty sweet matchup.

Mike Minor Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-118)

Mike Minor is taking on the Texas Rangers, and it's a phenomenal matchup.

Against lefties this year, Texas holds the 11th-highest strikeout rate (24.0%) with the fifth-worst wOBA (.289). They shouldn't be too tough of a task for Minor, and that'll give him a good shot to do deep into the game and get six-plus punchouts.

In 2021, Minor has pitched to a 3.83 SIERA, 25.8% strikeout rate and 11.2% swinging-strike rate. He's struck out at least six in seven of his past nine outings, and workload won't be an issue, as the lefty has racked up 107, 97 and 106 pitches over his last three starts.

Our model projects Minor for 5.8 strikeouts.