3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/24/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+500)
After a hot start to the season (.392 wOBA in April), Jazz Chisholm has cooled considerably, but he can get back to his mashing ways tonight versus Joe Ross.
Ross is having a tough time with left-handed hitters this year, giving up a .347 wOBA, 42.0% hard-hit rate, and 45.0% fly-ball rate in the split. Lefties are hitting 1.74 dingers per nine against him, and he permitted two jacks to a lefty-hitting Francisco Lindor last time out.
Chisholm isn't Lindor, but he's shown plenty of pop. He hit 21 homers in Double-A in 2019 and has launched 10 in 272 career plate appearances in the MLB, seven of which have come against a righty. He has been hitting atop the order, too, which will help him get as many plate appearances as possible.
We have Chisholm projected for 0.26 taters, and with the price at an appealing +500, I like rolling the dice on him to go yard tonight.
Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+420)
The Minnesota Twins have a 5.38 implied total in a nice matchup with Jean Carlos Mejia, and Trevor Larnach is a good way to get in on the fun in the prop-bet market.
Larnach has been getting regular playing time since being promoted earlier this season, and he's usually hitting in a juicy spot in the lineup -- third or fourth in seven of his past eight games. He's been good with the platoon advantage, registering a .367 wOBA and 41.8% hard-hit rate against righties.
He'll have said platoon advantage today against Mejia. With just 17 2/3 MLB frames to Mejia's name, we can't make any strong claims from his MLB sample. With that said, lefties have mauled him so far for a .443 wOBA while striking out just 16.7% of the time.
Our model projects Larnach for 0.21 homers, the second-most on the Twins. But at FanDuel Sportsbook, four Minnesota hitters have shorter home-run odds, so there's good value on Larnach to go ding dong tonight.
Walker Buehler Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+104)
Walker Buehler is having another excellent season. Through 90 2/3 innings, he owns a 3.68 SIERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 5.4% walk rate. While those are really good numbers, his strikeouts are down in 2021.
The aforementioned 25.2% strikeout rate is a career-worst mark. Buehler has gone for fewer than eight strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, posting five or fewer punchouts in four of those games. Workload isn't the issue, either, as Buehler has gone at least six innings in all 14 of his starts this season.
On the flip side, Buehler dominated in his last start, fanning 11 and taking a no-no into the eighth against the Arizona Diamondbacks. And Buehler could rack up whiffs tonight against a Chicago Cubs offense that holds the sixth-highest strikeout rate this year (26.0%).
But all in all, eight-plus strikeouts is a tall task for a guy who just hasn't had many high-strikeout games this season. We project Buehler for only 6.04 punchouts in this one.
