3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 6/21/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Brett Anderson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+120)
Brett Anderson made a quantum leap of sorts against the Cincinnati Reds last week, striking out nine batters over seven innings. Can he come anywhere close to that again versus the Arizona Diamondbacks?
Coming into that start, Anderson had yielded eight runs (seven earned) in his previous 7.1 innings. That tends to not be very good. It is difficult to gauge the strikeout rate with Anderson because he averages only a little over four innings per start.
Meanwhile, Arizona strikes out only 23.7% of the time which is 0.4% below the league average, but then again, Anderson only has to fan four batters.
Our model projects Anderson for 3.58 strikeouts, but that is over just 5.22 innings. Just take a shot at the over given the struggles of the Diamondbacks.
Joey Votto to Hit a Home Run (+600)
It may an extreme risk but Joey Votto, after being ejected on Sunday, is at least worth a look on Monday against J.A. Happ and the Minnesota Twins.
Tonight is about tossing a little extra money on the kindling just to see what happens. Votto has just eight home runs on the season but Happ has allowed 11 home runs in 60+ innings. Worse, he has yielded six home runs in the last three starts (just 14 innings pitched).
Happ could easily give up several more round-trippers tonight and Votto does have three home runs in his past dozen games. It's worth a shot.
Yu Darvish Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+134)
This is a prop to only wager on if the number stays +130 or better. Yu Darvish at home even against the Los Angeles Dodgers is a reasonable matchup.
The last home start saw Darvish strike out eight batters over seven innings against the Chicago Cubs. The San Diego Padres starting pitcher is averaging six innings per start as well. He actually was averaging 11 or more K's per 9 the past several years. This year, his rate is just 10.4. That number may possibly rise a little.
After a poor outing in Colorado, Darvish is poised to bounce back in a huge spot against a Los Angeles team that is starting to play better baseball. Darvish is projected to strike out 6.82 batters over 5.66 innings, according to the model (the top K projection on the slate).
Darvish could potentially whiff eight or more batters on Monday. The +134 seems a bit up there, but this could be a pleasant surprise. Get that over!
