MLB Betting Guide: Monday 6/14/21
Which MLB games offer betting value on FanDuel Sportsbook? Let's see where we can zero in.
Please note that lines are subject to change after this article is published, which impacts betting advice. All betting lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook, and you can check here to see their most updated numbers. You can also look at our oddsFire tool to get a feel for what the betting public is doing.
Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+142): 1 Star out of 5
The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays both rank towards the top of the league in offense, with the Blue Jays averaging 5.10 runs per game (3rd in MLB) and the Red Sox averaging 4.95 runs per game (7th in MLB).
The starting pitching will be critical in separating these teams, as the Blue Jays start Alek Manoah against Nathan Eovaldi for the Red Sox. Manoah has only made three starts and he does have a good ERA at 3.14 but he has surrender 3 home runs and walked 7 batters in only 14.1 innings pitched, so his FIP is 5.32 and his low ERA is not sustainable unless he starts pitching better.
Nate Eovaldi of the Red Sox has a 4.11 ERA and 2.63 FIP in 72.1 innings pitched and he has an expected ERA of 3.59. Eovaldi has shown he is a quality starting pitcher and he should give the Red Sox the starting pitching advantage in this game.
Our model gives the Red Sox a 42.58% chance to cover, which is good enough to make this a 1-star bet at plus odds.
New York Mets +1.5 (-166): 2 Stars out of 5
The Chicago Cubs appear to have the advantage in the starting pitching matchup at first glance with Jake Arrieta posting a 4.97 ERA compared to a 6.32 ERA for David Peterson so far this season. However, if we use expected ERA (xERA), then David Peterson closes the gap significantly with a 5.84 xERA compared to a 5.69 xERA for Arrieta.
The Cubs have been better than the New York Mets offensively this season (4.62 runs per game, compared to 3.78) but the Mets bullpen has been better than the Cubs (3.16 ERA to 3.66). There is not much separating these teams in the standings either, with the Cubs at 38-27 compared to 32-25 for the Mets.
Our model likes the Mets to cover at +1.5, giving them a 69.50% likelihood to do so, and thus, it makes the Mets runline a 2-star bet for Monday night.
Detroit Tigers +1.5 (-156): 1 Star out of 5
The Kansas City Royals are 4.5 games ahead of the Detroit Tigers in the standings but the Tigers have a huge advantage in the starting pitching matchup on Monday. The Tigers start Matt Boyd, who is off to a good start this season with a 3.56 ERA in 68.1 innings pitched. He has a 3.94 xERA and a 3.81 FIP so while his more advanced stats indicate he may not be quite as good as his ERA indicates, he is certainly pitching relatively well.
For the Royals, Brad Keller is having a rough start to the season, and he has a 5.75 ERA in 61 innings. His xERA is even higher at 6.54 and he ranks 277th out of 286 qualified pitchers in this category.
Our model gives the Tigers a 62.80% likelihood to cover the runline of 1.5 and we like this as a 1-star bet.