MLB Betting Guide: Friday 6/11/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
Over 9.5 (-110): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
This one is pretty simple. We've got two blah pitchers -- Garrett Richards and Ross Stripling -- going against two very good offenses.
For the season, the Toronto Blue Jays are fourth in wOBA (.327) while the Boston Red Sox are sixth (.325). Both offenses should eat today.
Richards' 4.76 SIERA and 11.3% walk rate will likely get him in a lot of trouble against the Jays. Stripling has been better than Richards, pitching to a 3.93 SIERA, but he's permitting 1.71 dingers per nine and allowing a .404 wOBA to righties. Guys like J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts will be licking their chops.
We project the Red Sox to win 5.57-5.26, which amounts to 10.83 total runs -- 1.33 more than the listed total. Our algorithm has the over hitting 59.2% of the time, rating it as a two-star wager.
Los Angeles Angels at Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 9.0 (-114): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
This game gives us a pitching matchup of Shohei Ohtani versus Merrill Kelly, and it's another over our model likes.
Kelley has pitched to a 4.18 SIERA and 20.7% strikeout rate in 2021. He's conceded 17 runs across his last five starts, a span which covers 32 innings. We project the Los Angeles Angels to get 5.86 runs tonight.
Ohtani is a really good pitcher, and he brings a 3.89 SIERA and 34.1% strikeout rate into this one. The issue with him is his workload. He has a single-game high of 93 pitches this season and has thrown fewer than 90 pitches in all but two outings. Behind him is a Halos' bullpen that ranks ninth-worst in SIERA (4.06). That where the Arizona Diamondbacks can do work, and we forecast them to score 5.08 runs.
In all, we see 10.94 runs being scored in this one, and we give the over a 60.1% chance to win out. It's a three-star bet by our numbers.
