MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/10/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Over 9.0 (+100): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays have a lot of right-handed power, and both teams -- Hyun-jin Ryu for the Jays and Dallas Keuchel for Chicago -- are sending a lefty out to the hill today. We should see some runs.
Keuchel is striking out just 12.0% of hitters. That should get him into some trouble against a Jays lineup that will likely feature right-handed bats such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk.
Ryu is a good pitcher, but in his last outing, he was touched up for six earned runs in 5 2/3 frames by a Houston Astros' lineup, which is brutal on southpaws. Well, his matchup today is even tougher as the Pale Hose rank first in wOBA against lefties.
This should be a fun one as our model projects a 5.25-4.98 win for Chicago. That's 10.23 runs, and we think the over hits 53.9% of the time. We're seeing sharp money on the over, too. Per oddsFire, just 50% of the tickets are on the over but 67% of the money is. With the price on the over at +100, we rate it as a three-star bet.
Minnesota Moneyline (+114): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The New York Yankees are taking on J.A. Happ, who has been pretty miserable in 2021 with a 5.04 SIERA. They could feast on him. With it being the Yankees and given the good matchup, the public is hammering New York on the moneyline, with 86% of moneyline bets taking the Bronx Bombers.
But don't sleep on the Minnesota Twins' offense as they're in a pretty dope spot, too, taking on Michael King. And our model actually has the Twins projected to win, opening up some good betting value.
King has just a 20.8% strikeout rate and 8.8% swinging-strike rate in 2021, so he's nothing to write home about. Minnesota is ninth in wOBA (.322), and their wOBA is .325 over the last 14 days.
Our algorithm has Happ doing decently well tonight, and we really like the Twins' offense to do some damage, projecting them to win this game 5.00-4.82. We hand the Twins win odds of 54.2% and rate taking them on the moneyline as a two-star play.