3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Friday 6/4/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our projections may change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+500)
Our model gives Jazz Chisholm the third-best home run projection of the night, and he's at +500 to go deep. That should immediately get our attention.
Chisholm is taking on Mitch Keller, which is a big part of why he can hit a bomb tonight. Keller has a meager 8.0% swinging-strike rate this year and has allowed 1.28 dingers per nine for his career. Lefties this season have mauled Keller to the tune of a .383 wOBA and 41.8% fly-ball rate.
Despite dealing with a few ailments in 2021, Chisholm has shown plenty of pop, bashing six homers in 130 plate appearances. He's got three taters in just 52 road plate appearances versus a righty.
His homer projection of 0.33 is the same as Ronald Acuna's, and Acuna is +260 to hit a jack. Take the big number on Chisholm.
Freddy Peralta Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+152)
For this prop, FanDuel Sportsbook has a +152 price on the over and a -196 price on the under, so we know what way they're leaning. Our projections ever so slightly lean toward the under, as well, but it's close enough that I like taking the over at the +152 price.
Freddy Peralta has been spectacular this season. He's got a 3.05 SIERA, 37.2% strikeout rate and 15.2% swinging-strike rate. Peralta has been one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, getting at least seven punchouts in every start this season. He's also being given a bigger workload as the season progresses. His only two outings of 100-plus pitches have come in his past two starts.
The matchup could be better, but it also could be worse. The Arizona Diamondbacks have the 19th-highest strikeout rate (23.4%) and 16th-best wOBA (.308).
Our projections forecast Peralta for 7.4 strikeouts, the most of the day. That's barely under this line, so with the +152 odds on the over, it makes sense to roll the dice on Peralta getting to eight strikeouts. Also, in the player performance doubles section, you can get Peralta to fan seven-plus and the Milwaukee Brewers to win at +230. We project Milwaukee to win 61.1% of the time.
Travis Shaw to Hit a Home Run (+470)
Travis Shaw is struggling this season -- there's no getting around it. But dude is still hitting lots of fly-balls, and he may run into a homer today versus Matt Peacock.
Shaw holds a 46.2% fly-ball rate in 2021, and he struck the ball decently well in May with a 38.6% hard-hit rate and 50.9% fly-ball rate for the month.
Peacock has just 28 MLB innings to his name. He's striking out only 18.2% of hitters while permitting 1.61 homers per nine innings. It's a small sample, obviously, but lefties have tagged him for a .368 wOBA and four homers in 48 total batters faced.
Shaw is a solid dart throw at a long ball in this spot.
