3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Thursday 6/3/21
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up (to the tune of cold hard cash) to measure a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our projections as a guide and looking at the odds provided at MLB odds, here are some spots where you can find value today in the prop-betting market.
Please note that betting lines and our game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Jon Duplantier Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+102)
The Arizona Diamondbacks' starter projects high risk on Thursday, but his near-even odds are reasonable at +102.
In his first start, Duplantier fanned five batters. That was in just 4 2/3 innings pitched. The pitcher was a little all over the place in his first start in two years. He walked two batters and hit one.
The Milwaukee Brewers as a road matchup is not horrible. While they only strike out 27% of the time overall, that number jumps to 28% at home (a good bit above the 24.3% league average).
Our projections have Duplantier getting 3.77 strikeouts tonight and pitching 4.7 innings. That mark seems low, and with an increasing plus number, the over is worth looking into as he might go five or more innings.
Manny Machado to Hit a Home Run (+400)
Manny Machado at a +400 price is worth taking a swing at. The infielder is having some very bad luck in the first two months. He's hitting a home run once every 30.67 at-bats, which is way worse than his career rate of 21.1 at-bats per round-tripper.
The San Diego slugger faces Taijuan Walker of the New York Mets, who is one of the feel-good starting pitchers of the 2021 season so far. No one expects him to give up one home run every 49 innings forever, however. His 2.4% homer-to-fly-ball rate is well below his career average (12.3%), and we should see a course correction soon.
Machado enjoys a very low projection of 0.12 home runs, according to our model, but those +400 odds are very juicy given that at some point regression may come. Machado cannot hit this way forever, and Walker cannot pitch this way all season.
Lance Lynn Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-104)
Lance Lynn is a prop play that should only be used if his number stays near even. This could swing as the number has approached even as the day has worn on.
While Lynn only threw 82 pitches in his last start, he whiffed seven batters in just five innings, and 17 of those 82 pitches were swinging strikes to boot. His strikeout rate is up to 26.9%, which is nearly six percentage points above the league average of 21% Further, the Detroit Tigers are not a very good team and have a strikeout rate of 28%.
That said, Lynn has come in below eight strikeouts in six of nine starts and has exceeded six innings only twice. Our projections have Lynn going just over six innings while striking out 7.06 batters. Lean on the under here by a whisker.
