MLB Betting Guide: Thursday 6/3/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
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Over 8.0 (-106): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
Our model doesn't identify too many good bets for tonight's slate, so this one sticks out in a big way. In fact, other than this four-star play, we have just one other bet -- which we'll get to shortly -- with more than a one-star rating.
The pitching matchup is Casey Mize against Lance Lynn, and our numbers point to the offense of the Chicago White Sox doing much of the heavy lifting to get us to the over as we forecast Chicago to score 5.77 runs.
Admittedly, Mize has been rolling. He had a 3.93 xFIP in May and hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any of his last three starts. But even during his hot May, Mize put up just a 22.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate, so he's not blowing people away. For the year, he owns a 20.1% strikeout rate, and these White Sox can mash, sitting second in wOBA (.330).
Lynn has a much, much softer matchup against a Detroit Tigers offense that is 26th in wOBA (.293), and Lynn is a pretty darn good pitcher. But we don't need much from the Tigers' offense if the White Sox do what we project, and Lynn's 6.3% homer-to-fly-ball rate is due for some regression.
In all, we project a 5.77-4.24 win for Chicago. That is a total of 10.01 runs -- a touch more than two runs over this total. We have the over hitting 62.7% of the time.
Over 6.5 (-124): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
With a 25.9% strikeout rate, Walker is having a decent campaign, but he's also carrying a career-worst 10.1% walk rate and a 2.4% homer-per-fly-ball rate that he won't be able to maintain (12.3% career average). The San Diego Padres' 10.3% walk rate is the fifth-best in the league, so they should be able to take advantage of Walker's wildness.
Darvish is a bad dude, and his numbers are mostly in line with what he's produced the last two seasons. His 3.31 SIERA and 30.0% strikeout rate are stellar. But the Padres have kept a pretty tight leash on him, with Darvish failing to throw more than 93 pitches in any of his last four outings. And with the total at 6.5 runs, we don't need the New York Mets to have a huge day.
Our model has the Padres winning 4.12-3.46, which is 7.58 total runs. We give the over a 61.6% chance to win out.