MLB Betting Guide: Friday 5/28/21
numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.
For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.
Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.
Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
Over 7.5 (-106): 3-Star Rating Out of 5
The pitching matchup in this one pits Jon Gray against Mitch Keller. While neither pitcher is all that good, neither offense is, either, so we're getting a total at just 7.5 runs. Our model likes the over.
While most of Gray's numbers are improved from his putrid 2020, he's still got just a 4.39 SIERA and 19.9% strikeout rate. His current 9.1% walk rate is a career-worst mark. As for Keller, the one-time elite prospect is having another worrying campaign, struggling to a 4.76 SIERA with a meager 7.8% swinging-strike rate. He's walking 11.7% of hitters and surrendering 1.43 dingers per nine.
Our projections have this game as a coin flip, pegging the Rox to win 4.63-4.48. That's 9.11 runs -- well above the 7.5-run line. We have the over hitting 63.0% of the time and rate it as a three-star wager.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
Over 6.5 (-120): 4-Star Rating Out of 5
The best bet of the night, per our algorithm, is the over in the Atlanta Braves-New York Mets matchup, which gives us a pitching clash between Ian Anderson and Taijuan Walker.
This will be Walker's return from the injured list, and he'd more or less been the same Walker prior to getting hurt. He owns a 4.37 SIERA and 23.7% strikeout rate, and his walk rate is up to 10.4%. Against a Braves offense that walks at the 10th-highest clip, Walker could be in some trouble.
Anderson can be gross when he's on (3.82 SIERA and 25.2% strikeout rate), but he also has issues with walks. He's got a 10.0% walk rate this season and a 10.1% mark for his career. The Mets' offense is walking at the eighth-highest rate, so if Anderson is inefficient, New York could get into a Braves bullpen that is eighth-worst in SIERA (4.02).
In total, we project 8.90 runs to be scored in this game (4.71-4.19 win for Atlanta). That's 2.4 runs more than the 6.5-run total. We forecast a 71.8% chance for the over to win out.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Cardinals +1.5 (-184): 2-Star Rating Out of 5
The St. Louis Cardinals are 1.5-run underdogs but are just +108 on the moneyline, so oddsmakers are expecting a close game. We're expecting a Cards win.
The Red Birds are up against Madison Bumgarner. MadBum has picked it up this year, spinning his way to a 3.85 SIERA and 25.1% strikeout rate. But he's still giving up plenty of juicy contact (38.8% hard-hit rate and 48.6% fly-ball rate), especially to right-handers (40.6% hard-hit rate and 48.0% fly-ball rate).
His trouble with righties is a good thing for a St. Louis lineup anchored by Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, two guys who know Bumgarner well from their days in the National League West. Both dudes have a lot of success against southpaws. Arenado carries a .454 wOBA and 53.6% fly-ball rate in the split this year while Goldschmidt posted a .439 wOBA versus lefties in 2020.
St. Louis will send Johan Oviedo to the mound. Oviedo has thrown only 15 2/3 innings this year, never working past the fifth, but he does have a 13.2% swinging-strike rate.
We project both offenses to fare well, with our algorithm projecting a 5.41-4.94 victory for the Cardinals. With St. Louis a 1.5-run 'dog, betting on them to cover is a two-star play.
