MLB

MLB Betting Guide: Tuesday 5/25/21

numberFire has built comprehensive algorithms to pinpoint the bets with the highest probability of returning money, whether you are betting on the total, a runline, or moneyline.

For those new to numberFire, we use a five-star system to show which bets you should be targeting on any given night. Stars represent how much you should risk on a wager relative to what you would normally bet. For example, if you would normally bet $110 to win $100 on a -110 spread wager, if we give a three-star ranking, we suggest risking three times that amount: $330 to win $300.

Using our model as a guide, let's take a look at the best bets to make at MLB odds.

Please note that lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated information.

Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals

Reds +1.5 (-130): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

It's never fun to bet against Max Scherzer, but our model has the Cincinnati Reds covering as 1.5-run underdogs as one of the best bets of the day.

Let's start with Tyler Mahle, who is getting the ball for the Reds. Mahle has been really good in 2021, pitching to a 3.72 SIERA and 28.3% strikeout rate. He turned in a dud in his last outing, permitting seven earned runs in two innings, but he's allowed more than two earned runs in only one other start this season.

While Scherzer still has elite strikeout ability, totaling a sparkling 35.7% strikeout rate this year, his contact issues remain. He's surrendered a 50.4% fly-ball rate this year and 1.31 homers per nine since the start of 2020. The Reds can take advantage of that as they have the fourth-most dingers.

Our algorithm projects this game as a coin flip with the Washington Nationals winning at a 50.2% rate. With Cincy a 1.5-run 'dog, there's good value on them on the run line. We project the Reds to cover 67.2% of the time.

Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

Over 6.5 (+100): 3-Star Rating Out of 5

Jacob deGrom is making his return, and he's probably going to breeze through a Colorado Rockies offense that ranks dead last in road wOBA (.258) with the fifth-highest strikeout rate (26.9%) in the split.

But it's not hard to imagine the New York Mets being pretty careful with deGrom in his first start back and limiting him to a shorter night. He did go just three innings in his only rehab appearance. And with Kyle Freeland pitching on the other side, we shouldn't need much from Colorado's offense to get this game to seven total runs.

Freeland will be making his 2021 debut as he's also coming back from injury. He posted a 15.1% strikeout rate and 4.95 SIERA in 2020, and if Freeland has a capped workload, the Mets will see a lot of a Colorado 'pen that owns the second-worst SIERA (4.44).

We project the Mets to win by a score of 4.76-3.06. That's 7.82 total runs, and our model gives the over a 63.4% chance to hit.

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Angels Moneyline (-154): 2-Star Rating Out of 5

Oddsmakers like the Los Angeles Angels tonight, but according to our numbers, there's still value on taking the Halos to win.

Andrew Heaney will be on the bump for LA. With a 3.33 SIERA and 30.5% strikeout rate, he's pitching much better than his 5.31 ERA indicates. His 19.5% homer-per-fly-ball rate is high even for a guy who has struggled with dingers for most of his career. Heaney should do well versus a Texas Rangers offense that has the 8th-highest strikeout rate (26.0%) and 11th-worst wOBA (.304).

Hyeon-jong Yang, who is starting for Texas, has been pretty blah in his rookie campaign, spinning a 4.93 SIERA, 17.4% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. He's given up three home runs in 21 1/3 frames, and he had just a 20.0% strikeout rate 172 1/3 innings last year in the KBO.

Our projections have the Angels winning 66.3% of the time. With the moneyline at -154, the Angels' implied win odds are just 60.6%. It's not much, but there's some value there. We rate the Angels moneyline as a two-star wager.