FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Wednesday 5/19/21

Wednesday's slate has a dozen games on tap, and if you like top-of-the-line pitching, this slate's for you. While that narrows the number of offenses in plus matchups, there are still a handful that really stick out. In terms of weather, the Milwaukee-Kansas City bout is looking like the lone trouble spot.

Our daily helper is available every day to analyze FanDuel's main slate and help give you a starting point when you're building lineups. Be sure to also incorporate our great tools into your research process. Whether you're looking for daily projections, the latest starting lineups and weather, or batting and pitching heat maps to find the best matchups -- we've got you covered!

Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.

Pitchers

Corbin Burnes ($10,500): The forecast isn't promising for Burnes tonight, but he still deserves a mention here in case things clear up -- his numbers are just that absurd. Burnes' 1.36 SIERA, 45.3% strikeout rate, and 0.8% walk rate are pretty much on par with Jacob deGrom but with fewer walks. He threw 78 pitches in his return from the COVID-19 injured list last week and racked up nine strikeouts, so we shouldn't be worried about his form, and his pitch count should get back into the 80s at least. Kansas City isn't a plus matchup for strikeouts, but that isn't a concern when a guy is dealing like this.

John Means ($10,000): In terms of safety and floor, there's a strong argument for Jack Flaherty in a cupcake opponent in the lowly Pirates, but Flaherty's 25.7% strikeout rate pales in comparison to others on the board, and the one thing Pittsburgh does well is avoiding punchouts. For that reason, Means is the guy I'm more interested in for tournaments at this salary range.

The Baltimore left-hander is on his way towards the best season of his career, producing a 3.41 SIERA, 28.0% strikeout rate, and 5.3% walk rate through eight starts. The rise in strikeouts don't look like a fluke, either, as he boasts a 15.4% swinging-strike rate that cracks the top 10 among qualified starters. But the cherry on top is a matchup with the Rays. Tampa Bay's active roster owns the second-highest strikeout rate against southpaws this season (31.9%), and they held one of the highest rates in 2020, as well. If Burnes' game is ultimately rained out, there's a strong case for Means being the next man up.

Max Scherzer ($11,700): Under most circumstances, Scherzer would be the top non-Burnes play, but potential hitter-friendly winds at Wrigley and a slate-high salary bump him down. As of this writing, the Cubs have a 4.16 implied total against Scherzer, showing the negative impact of the weather. That said, his numbers speak for themselves, with a 2.57 SIERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate, and the Cubs own a 25.9% strikeout rate versus righties. Keep an eye on the direction of the wind later in the day because if it ends up blowing more across the field, this could boost Scherzer's appeal tonight.

Shohei Ohtani ($9,500): Ohtani is the straight-up wild card here, and it's all about which version shows up. In his last start, he recorded 10 strikeouts and just 1 walk in a tough spot against the Astros (52 FanDuel points), but in the outing right before that, he walked 6 against the Rays. Ultimately, his five starts have led to a 36.4% strikeout rate and 18.2% walk rate, showing just how much of a boom-or-bust play he is. We also aren't getting great savings, considering his salary isn't much lower than Means and other solid options. Despite all that, his strikeout rate is the slate's second-best mark, and he's in a plum spot against Cleveland (3.81 implied total).

Others to Consider: Jack Flaherty ($10,800), Trevor Rogers ($9,700), Logan Gilbert ($6,000)

Hitters

Washington Nationals: Oddsmakers seem to think the wind will help batters at Wrigley (13 mph to left field), as they're presently spotting the Nationals a 4.84 implied total. As noted regarding Scherzer, keep tabs on whether this holds throughout the day, but even without the boost, the Nats have an appealing matchup versus Jake Arrieta.

Arrieta is showing a lackluster strikeout rate (18.7%) and SIERA (4.83) for the third straight season, but the difference is he's allowing way more fly balls, as he's inducing grounders at a career-low 34.8% clip. That's particularly great news for the power of Juan Soto ($4,000), Josh Bell ($3,400), and Kyle Schwarber ($3,100), and Arrieta has also struggled versus lefties in recent seasons.

Leadoff man Trea Turner ($4,300) is the obvious add-on to that trio, but if you can't get up to him, Starlin Castro ($2,100) is practically minimum salary and has been consistently batting fifth lately. Castro may not have exciting numbers, but he doesn't strike out much (15.4%), and batting fifth or sixth most nights have helped him to 17 RBIs, which is actually tied for the second-most on the team.

Toronto Blue Jays: Although Garrett Richards put up solid results for Boston, the underlying numbers have been mediocre, and he's in a real tough spot against the Blue Jays at TD Ballpark, which favors hitting. Richards has actually performed worse in righty-righty matchups, resulting in a 4.78 xFIP, 20.2% strikeout rate, and 10.7% walk rate in the split, and he isn't getting many grounders, either (43.9%).

That's especially appealing for a lineup that boasts mostly righty sticks, including everyone in the usual top five batting slots. Teoscar Hernandez ($3,100) and Randal Grichuk ($2,900) are great values at their salaries, and you can hop down to Lourdes Gurriel ($32,500) if necessary, as he's finally showing signs of life lately.

Boston Red Sox: Of course, the Red Sox also benefit from Toronto's "home" ballpark, and their matchup is enticing versus Ross Stripling. At first glance, Stripling's 3.89 SIERA and 26.3% strikeout rate looks like a no-go for a stack, but if we check out his splits, we find someone really struggling against righties, and that also dates back to 2020. If we include both seasons, he's posted a 5.49 xFIP, 16.2% strikeout rate, and 38.6% ground-ball rate in the split while giving up 2.7 home runs per nine innings.

J.D. Martinez ($4,300) and Xander Bogaerts ($3,400) are the obvious first places to look, and leadoff man Enrique Hernandez ($2,600) is back, giving us some value up top. Hunter Renfroe ($2,500) and Bobby Dalbec ($2,400) offer us some low-cost power at the bottom of the order if they start.

And while Stripling is tougher on left-handers, he's been at or below five innings in every start, so Rafael Devers ($3,900) remains a strong play with how he's playing.

Others to Consider: New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves