FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Helper: Tuesday 5/18/21
A gigantic 14-game main slate awaits us on Tuesday night, and as you might imagine, that gives us quite a few ways to go at pitcher. That said, for a slate this size, we're not seeing as many head-turning implied totals for our bats, which could lead to spread out roster percentages.
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Let's check out the top options on tonight's main slate.
Pitchers
Brandon Woodruff ($11,000): Woodruff has now scored 50-plus FanDuel points three of the last four and continues to impress in 2021. He's posted a fantastic 2.88 SIERA, 33.2% strikeout rate, and 14.1% swinging-strike rate, all of which would be career-best markss if the season ended today.
The Royals are a middle-of-the-road offense that shouldn't give Woodruff too much trouble, and that's reflected by their 3.31 implied total. He's the night's best overall choice, but note that there's some rain in the forecast, so keep tabs on this one before locking in Woodruff.
Andrew Heaney ($7,600): There are some really solid names who immediately follow Woodruff in the $10,000 range, but it might be hard to pass up the upside we can find in the lower ranks. Heaney's way down here below $8,000, and yet his 2.93 SIERA, 33.6% strikeout rate, and 6.8% walk rate really aren't that far off from what Woodruff has been doing.
Of course, the difference has been the real-life results, as Heaney has struggled to keep the ball in the park, allowing 1.75 home runs per nine innings. An elevated 20.6% homer-to-fly-ball rate could suggest some poor luck, but allowing dingers has been an ongoing issue throughout Heaney's career and specifically versus right-handed batters.
Therein lies the risk, but the good news is that Cleveland's active roster has struggled versus southpaws this season (78 wRC+), and they're drawing a modest 3.61 implied total. If Heaney can work around the power of Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, he could be in line for a strong performance.
Jameson Taillon ($7,100): Taillon is another example of poor results versus strong peripherals. His 5.40 ERA is a far cry from what would expect from someone sporting a 3.13 SIERA, 30.7% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate.
But much like Heaney, the culprit is once again the home run ball, and Taillon is giving up an egregious 2.16 per nine innings off a 48.9% fly-ball rate. However, the difference is that Taillon hasn't had this issue in prior campaigns, which gives us a bit more confidence that he can turn things around.
Despite Gerrit Cole's disappointing outing on Monday, the Rangers are still a lineup we want to attack more often than not, and their 27.3% strikeout rate versus righties is exactly why.
Others to Consider: Zack Wheeler ($10,400), Blake Snell ($8,000)
Stacks
Tampa Bay Rays: On a slate with only a handful of high implied totals, it's actually the Rays who come out with one of the better marks at 4.89. A matchup against Matt Harvey at Camden Yards tends to help, and it's Tampa's lefty batters who should intrigue us the most.
While Harvey is at least serviceable against righties by inducing grounders roughly half the time, the same can't be said when facing lefties. Against those with the platoon advantage, the veteran hurler is displaying a 5.37 xFIP and 12.9% strikeout rate. He hasn't been allowing many home runs -- yet -- but a 45.6% fly-ball rate points to more leaving the park.
As for the key beneficiaries, Austin Meadows ($3,600) and Brandon Lowe ($3,400) are the clear starting points, and a now-healthy Ji-Man Choi ($3,200) could be sandwiched between them for an all-lefty two through four in the order. Joey Wendle ($3,000) is another lefty option who should be batting in the top six, as well.
Harvey is still a low-strikeout pitcher versus right-handed hitters, so Randy Arozarena ($3,100) and Manuel Margot ($3,000) are also fine ways to round out any stacks.
Washington Nationals: The wind could be blowing in at Wrigley, which isn't ideal, but on a slate lacking many great stacking options, the Nationals' matchup versus Zach Davies is one to exploit. Davies has poor all-around numbers with a 5.83 SIERA, 13.2% strikeout rate, and 12.6% walk rate, and outside of a decent 47.4% ground-ball rate, there really isn't much going his way in 2021.
Davies has poor splits versus both lefties and righties, which doesn't hurt for our stacks, and Juan Soto ($4,000) and Trea Turner ($4,200) are the usual top choices in this lineup. The lack of punchouts makes high-strikeout power bats like Josh Bell ($3,500) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,100) more likely to come through, as well.
Los Angeles Dodgers: (Editor's note: Corbin Martin is now starting for Arizona. Although he's a wild card, he struggled in five 2019 big league starts and has control issues, so a Dodgers stack is still on the table.) Merrill Kelly has settled into a respectable string of starts after getting lit up early in the season, but he's still showing a ho-hum 4.78 SIERA and 17.3% strikeout rate. He continues to allow hard contact to both sides of the plate, and given his history of giving up home runs, that should continue to entice us for stacks.
Injuries have made this present Dodgers lineup less exciting than the one we saw to start the year, but it's hard to go wrong with guys like Mookie Betts ($4,100), Max Muncy ($3,700), Justin Turner ($3,600), and Will Smith ($3,000). Matt Beaty ($2,200) and Albert Pujols ($2,000) are boring, but it's hard to argue with those salaries if either one bats high in the order.
Others to Consider: New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs
